XHB homebuilders

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by dividend, Nov 20, 2007.

  1. Homebuilders don't look too bad to me. New home inventories aren't extraordinarily high. What is troublesome is that existing home inventories are high and continue to rise, and... consumer sentiment is very low.

    However, I don't think that new homes have a big problem attracting new buyers. Given a choice between a new home and a used home for similiar prices and similar location, I think that the new home will get sold first.

    Homebuilders of course will have lower earnings due to rising materials cost and lower sales dollar volume, but I think that the market is too aggressive in its discounting of these fundamentals.

    Homes are not being sold now because they are not priced correctly. Sellers still refusing to price it where it should be. I think that homebuilders will continue to discount prices of new homes while sellers of existing homes will try to be stubborn. New entrylevel homes will do ok while existing home inventories will grow.
  2. You think this is the bottom in these stocks and it is right here and you want to buy long?
    Good luck with that.

  3. hmmmmmmm I wouldn't touch that stock (XHB) with a 10 ft. pole. A downtrend is a downtrend. Use calls if you want to play for upside because that basically defines your max loss.

    Good luck.
  4. S2007S


    Im very bearish on homebuilders however a rally of 5-10% I believe is in XHB very soon. I think 20+ is in the cards over the next 4-6 weeks.

    Beside that the trend is down, but when they do come to a bottom sometime over the next few years this ETF could rally 50%+ in a year. Maybe even more.
  5. S2007S


    Just went long XHB at $17.85.

    Still bearish on this sector, but looking for a bounce,

    Long XHB until $19.50.
  6. ITB seems to have bigger moves...but yea, another bear here lookin for a bounce
  7. There is a good expected return for the HB trade but it is highly risky. There are many risks, including if the FRB doesn't cut Fed Fund rate enough in Dec. There is also a huge risk of the yen spiking up suddenly. That could bitchslap the market and send some homebuilders to $5. Maybe it's a good idea to be long/short hedged and protect yourself from something stupid happening like a systemic quant fund blowing up.
  8. I have looked at xhb and considered starting to scale trade it on deep swings into new lows until I realized that bankruptcy of one or several members is a real possibility, so I pass on this for now.

  9. Same here, no support, no proof of a turnaround on daily chart.
    You are catching a falling knife.
    This doesn't mean you won't get a dead cat bounce, but my trading style dictates that you must have support bounce or a trendline break to enter long in a downtrend.
    10,000 stocks out there, better opportunities.

    Good luck with the trade
  10. Same Citi analyst that upgraded H Builders last month now downgraded them. The comedy continues...... Now we know why brokers make money. Go figure.

    CTX 19.14 11/26/2007
    BZH 8.12 11/26/2007
    KBH 20.77 11/26/2007
    DHI 11.02 11/26/2007
    MHO 11.78 11/26/2007
    HOV 6.95 11/26/2007
    MTH 13.84 11/26/2007
    XHB 17.9 11/26/2007

    #10     Nov 26, 2007