It is on my watchlist as a long term buy but when to enter - I have no idea If I had to guess, I would say 2011, when the mortgage resets are finally over you would think whoever hasnt been shaken out of the tree by then will still hang onto their house and maybe we hit a bottom?
perhaps a fairly nonbiased way to look for a bottom is when that case shiller index hits + numbers again. Right now its at -16% so we should have quite a wait
This is a tricky one. On the one hand, lots of bear points have already occured: sector bankruptcies, massive stock price declines. On the other, we haven't really had true blood on the streets yet, and land prices are still falling. Ideally I'd like to see these stocks selling for less than their net cash in the bank before making a long-term investment. A lot of the decline has happened, much of the bad news is priced in, but I don't think they are yet cheap enough to attract me to invest. I am no longer short this sector but I am only playing the long side for selected trades - no buy & hold yet.
My sentiments exactly. I can't get behind anything in this sector long/buy/hold. Still too much potential downside. I have learned over the years how to value invest correctly and it takes and I have lots of patience. No light at the end of the tunnel here. I will wait for that light. Credit is very tough right now and till people can actually go out and get a loan...this sector is dead in the water. Not much buying out there and builders won't be making money if people can't or won't buy. I believe home prices have to fall further. I have specifics fundamental economic factors I am waiting for and want to see happen before I consider long. Happy Trades 1flyfisher
I'd say that the worst case scenario is not priced into the ETF. Many of the builders have a legit change of going under and the XHB has actually held up well compared to the XLF. Maybe below $15 you could start nibbling, but not at almost $18.