I'm not surprised the new housing #s were decent for Nov, as the MBA applications had that spike up 2 weeks ago. all the pumper analysts are taking it as a bottoming sign; i see it as a brief illusory pause in the beginning of a 5 year deeping bearish housing cycle, stimulated by expensive treasuries for the month. I guarantee the #s for the next few months won't hurt the housing bears, additionally helped a bit by seasonal falloff in transactions. Oh ... and look at the bond market. Now I like the spread hedge crap, because its the only way in good conscious I can carry all of these positions overnight. My idea: just in case I'm wrong and can't time this market, I'll get to enjoy at least one side of the movement. Sure it'll limit my gains potentially, but you never know, I could be right at both. Better question - what are the odds housing is going to shoot to the stratosphere and NASDAQ sells off hard? But I'm not buying the nasdaq selling off right now... who cares that its breaking through a channel. these indexes (nq, es, and ym) and virtually married to each other, and I perceive the nq as being underbought (you like that, different terminology for oversold?) ya sure, exchange stocks like ICE, NMX, and NYX are pricy. So are casinos (WYNN, MGM, etc.) ... but there are diamonds in the rough. Look at MOT or SNDK. Look at those cash positions, forward PEs, and LOW expectations !!! (you wouldn't think they are high judging by price) etc.. there is a lot more upside to these than down in my view. Furthermore, this 'housing collapse' has not yet permeated into the earnings of the broad market, especially techs (look at RIMM a few days ago) ... So why be bearish and decide to call the top? January is historically the most bullish month of the year ... And the news reports have not yet turned bearish. When jobs start falling off, and earnings confirm it, I'll believe it. Until then, its called consolidation (buy the dips).
i think we think alike in terms of macro, but man you are cray cray to go long a high beta like the NAZ as the long pair to your housing short. you might consider as your long pair a a mix of dow stocks that don't get hit that bad during a downturn KO, MCD, MMM, PG.
No, you said the q's would BREAK 43 AND THEY DID NOT. They held. Not only that but you called it day after day after day and they still haven't broken down below 43. what are you talking about HG THEY TRADED AT 42.88....THEY FINISHED LAST FRIDAY AT 42.88-------PLEASE DO YOUR HOMEWORK!!!! i have money on the line......i know where the qqqq`s broke through....as I traded off this price I only said they would break through 43 one time, beforehand, and they did the following market day----get some sleep hg
actually the way tech stocks use options---i gotta think there is more bad backdating news to come. Like Yahoo for example, as much money as Semel has taken out of that company----I woudn`t be surprised if sometime over the last 5 years they did it!
chicago fed was 104.4 versus 104.1 expected at noon. 80 pts on the dow is nothing. that is .6% !! furthermore, the nasdaq correction in may/june was pretty deep. ie Apple, same company, was trading ~50 at bottom, or 15 fpe ... i don't see any reason why it can't go up another 10-20%. otoh, if oil for some reason hit $100 out of geopolitical conflict and inflation re-upticked, I guarantee the market would sell. remember inflationary times tend to price stocks towards lower PE. (past oil crisises resulted in avg PEs of 9-12 range) As far as INTC's, my idea is that when the market sells off, it'll sell of the fluff: casinos, exchanges, and housing. the INTCs of this world with heavy cash positions have much less downside. you know that term the analysts use: "flight to quality"
I stand corrected. You were still talking in the context of a large drop below 43, not just .12 below 43 but you won't admit that. Hell you still won't admit the uptrend is still intact.
here's a good short for you, if you don't like the way techs use options: CRM. they spend all their earnings on options expenses. biggest joke I know of. Thats an additional short of mine, BTW. on their last earnings call, they justified it as a necessity to seek and retain talent. I reply: well if they need to be paid like that, you should count it as a non-GAAP expense so we see the true bottom line. I hope non-GAAP sometime disappears because of this... investors need to see options expenses as coming out of profits.
I'll admit I'm a volatility junkie ... I am trying to cut down on it for my health (stopping attempting to trade natural gas is progress for me). But KBH seems to me one of most volatile of the bunch ... although its settled as of late. as far as beta, perhaps I do need to reduce my correlation to the indexes on some of these stocks ...