X-mas Rally Officially Over: Start Shorting Tomorrow!!!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by BlueStreek, Dec 27, 2006.

  1. the markets are toast in 07. recession a high, high probability.
    #11     Dec 27, 2006
  2. 4re


    And here is my Q's chart
    #12     Dec 27, 2006
  3. The question of the day is Gerald Ford going to screw us once again? :D

    I believe the market will be up tommorrow, but Ford's funeral might close the market an additional day. So are traders going to sell off extra heavy with the double whammy on Friday? Double whammy= Fords funeral closing the market and New Year

    Maybe the death of Gerald Ford might be a bullish sign for the markets...
    #13     Dec 27, 2006
  4. john99


    NQ is the best short, YM and ER2 are being lifted on light volume right at the open, if 1440 on ES is taken out the rally will continue. The volume moving these markets up is hard to believe. Options exp. on friday, should be interesting with the year end.
    #14     Dec 27, 2006
  5. 4re


    Dec options expired on the 15th and Jan options will expire on the 19th.
    #15     Dec 27, 2006
  6. what are you talking about hg i told you the qqqq`s would break 43 AND THEY DID, i told you apple would hit 82 before it hit 92 when it was 86....I WAS RIGHT, I called rimm when it was up pre-market in the 140`s that it would sell off to the 125 level I WAS RIGHT.....i think it has been to the 127`s and eventually over the next 3 weeks it will hit the 125 mark. I told everybody here to buy puts on google when it was 515.00. I was right!

    Moreover, I told everybody to buy puts at .30 to .40 cents last week on the qqqq`s that you could have sold for .80 on Tuesday morning...again I was right!

    And I will be right tomorrow that the nasdaq finishes in the red tomorrow------hey I have made more money shorting the qqqq`s with my puts over the last few months b/c of this trading range than anybody buying the dips----those puts have made me over 19,000 in less than 2 months on the same initial investment that I still own the same number of units on as of my original trade 2 months ago.

    Moreover, the meter is still running on this trade til jan 07----i bet I clear 35,000 just on this trade alone by then---the original puts have not only paid for themselves, but given me an extra 9200, and I still own the original puts----all with the market not really going fully my way yet----must be nice to be so right even when you are wrong......lol.....suckers.......don`t buy all the hype.....you don`t actually think any money managers will be holding ANYTHING in the first part of 2007 do you?
    #16     Dec 27, 2006
  7. 2 bullish economic indicators came out today above expectations: midwest chicago fed manufacturing, and new housing.

    bonds are selling off; oil is getting cheaper ... there needs to be an economic catalyst for a selloff...

    these markets are DOGS already !!!! you want a correction? we've barely had a run !!!!

    look at HSI, or better yet HHI.HK for my definition of an overbought market. The US markets are the DEFINITION of rational. no volatility; no upside right now !!!

    come back to the thread when you do that, and we'll talk.

    Disclosure: i'm short housing and long tech... and grumpy about it to boot.
    #17     Dec 27, 2006
  8. No, you said the q's would BREAK 43 AND THEY DID NOT. They held. Not only that but you called it day after day after day and they still haven't broken down below 43.

    You were correct on aapl, but if you didn't trade based on it then I would say that prediction had no CONVICTION and is meaningless.

    If you think I am going to go back and re-read all of your predictions and post each time you were wrong then you're crazier than I think you are.

    The market WILL NEVER do what is obvious at the time it is obvious. If you haven't learned that lesson yet then you have a whole lot more money to lose.
    #18     Dec 27, 2006

  9. i have to agree about HSI. it's a blow off top and it'll crumple like urkle in a steel cage match soon enough.

    the housing sales figure always gets revised, so i wouldn't put to much stock in it. if you read the press release in full, the gov even says that the stats have a huge margin of error and sales may have actually fallen last month. permits are what you want to keep an eye out for considering they're easier to monitor. better yet, watch a 3 month rolling average of permits.

    chicago pmi i can't argue with. it was decent.

    but you better get short BOTH tech and housing brother. don't play this spread hedge crap.
    #19     Dec 27, 2006
  10. Jobless Claims
    8:30 ET
    Consumer Confidence
    10:00 ET
    Existing Home Sales
    10:00 ET
    10:00 ET
    EIA Petroleum Status Report
    10:30 ET
    EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 ET
    3-Month Bill Announcement
    11:00 ET
    6-Month Bill Announcement
    11:00 ET 5-Year Note Auction
    1:00 ET
    Farm Prices
    3:00 ET
    Money Supply
    4:30 ET

    are you sure the chicago manufacturing report came out today?

    the housing report was still down over 15% yoy comparison.

    the market was up 80 before any news came out---give me a break--we have had 3 months of bad news. (you don`t actually believe we were up today b/c of GOOD news?)

    you can`t compare overseas markets/emerging markets to the us markets on a strictly percentage basis of overbought and oversold conditions.

    i will say that the nasdaq going from 16 month lows to being up 14% at one time was overbought and it has already started correcting......the dow, snp 500 will soon follow suit.

    the housing stocks have a lot of hedge fund money in them, so I don`t play with them---they have manipulated the hell out of those for the entire year----but kb home is far over-valued right now----considering their debt issues.

    the semi`s like intc are relatively undervalued----but if they can`t do anything in this market, what happens when the sell-off begins?
    #20     Dec 27, 2006