Wyckoff's comment on Gann

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by harrytrader, Jan 30, 2004.

  1. Wyckoff wrote in his "Ticker Magazine"

    "One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September wheat would sell at $1.20.This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September.

    At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last trading day) futures were selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled.

    Mr. Gann said, "If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation.

    I do not care what the price is now, it must go there". It is now history that September wheat surprised the whole country by selling at exactly $1.20 in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure. During the month of October, 1909 in 25 market days, Mr Gann made in the presence of our market representative 286 transactions in various stocks on both the long and short sides of the market. 264 of these transactions resulted in profits, 22 in losses. The capital with which he operated was doubled 10 times so at the end of the month he had 1000% on his original margin.

    Mr Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price but to those who are scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.

    One of Gann's Most Remarkable Forecasts was in the year of 1928 - In November W.D. Gann issued an annual forecast predicting the end of the great bull market in stocks for September 3, 1929, and the greatest panic in history to follow. We quote from this forecast,"September - one of the sharpest declines of the year is indicated. There will be loss of confidence by investors and the public will try to get out after it is too late. Storms will damage crops and the general business outlook will become cloudy. War news will upset the market and unfavourable developments will occur in foreign countries.

    A 'Black Friday' is indicated and a panicky decline in stocks with only small rallies. The short side will prove the most profitable. You should sell short and pyramid on the way down."
     
  2. I know Gann's secret since I must have the same equations than him because there can't be several possible equations and like Gann I won't disclose them I will only publish results :D. I have shown more than him since I showed my weird charts whereas he has always refused to show any charts from these equations except esoteric ratios and lines which can't retrace back to the real equations.
     
  3. While it is possible that you have some exclusive knowledge that relates to the work Gann did, it is more likely that you have nothing of real value in your possession. As for the suggestion that there are no other similar equations, that is probably nonsense as well. all arithmetic expressions have corollary and derivative expressions that point back to the original idea. these are called proofs. In the past whenever I have heard similar claims they have always originated from persons who simply needed to have the attention of those around them. I will bet that this is simply more of the same. Rather than making ridiculous claims on this site, you would be better advised to put your energies into developing interpersonal relationships closer to home. This might help you to improve your trading, and then you might have something of real substance to add to these threads. Good luck. Steve46
     
  4. Since you are talking of proof can you give me the probability that I gave by chance within 2 points of precision 10703, 10661 and 10519 which were the exact tops and bottoms corresponding to what I called critical points (see SOC thread) - remember I said in advance that they were critical points - just for last week
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=24706&perpage=6&pagenumber=9

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  5. Do you know also in Physics modelling the concept of DEGREE OF FREEDOM ? If I was Nostradamus and gave these points by chance, the degree of freedom is great, but if these points are given by EQUATIONS what does it mean in term of probability ?

     
  6. Well what an interesting comment. So you think that predicting one instance of price movement is significant? After all the sophisticated crap you post relating to probability you have the guts to ask that question? This isn't my first day on the planet. Go back to elementary statistics and do the work yourself. This is called COINCIDENCE!!! You must be under that impression that I want to have a dialogue about this. You are wrong. I consider it a non productive pursuit. If in fact you have something of value, keep it, use it, make some money. Posting that you have something of Gann's work (but we can't see it) is infantile. Make your fortune, buy a house, a car, have a real relationship with someone you can look in the eye, and don't bore me with this childish crap (I have something special, and you can't have it). Alternatively T-Rex is looking for people to meet him in the chatroom. He is a scintillating conversationalist and has the very profitable "2 bar charlie" system (that he won't fully disclose). I am sure he will be quite interested in your comments about Gann.
     
  7. One instance ? You can't count above one indeed : I mentioned at least 3 and I didn't even add yesterday. Go back to primary school :).

    But let's even suppose to simplify your maths, since you seem a little poor about prob, that one forecast by chance WITHIN 2 POINTS a top or bottom ? What is the probability If you don't know I can help: consider the Probability Density Function and the area between x and x+delta where delta = 2 points.

    After that you can answer for 3 and then 4 etc.

     
  8. You exhibit the literal mind of a child. One, two, three, or twelve, it doesn't matter. As you should know (but apparently you have decided to ignore), you need to have a statistically significant sample to have your "claim" mean anything. Also you need to have a method that can be replicated by others. Since you are the only one who has this esoteric knowledge, we have to take it on faith? I don't think so. In my opinion, Gann was a fake, a charlatan and no better than a circus huckster. In the future try offering something of substance besides mythology.
     
  9. I agree with Steve.

    Harry, you look like a child with a big ego. Shut up, share your Grail or show us your account statements!!!
     
  10. Oh you're not a child yourself : you speak about proofs and now you say it doesn't matter.

    As for probability you don't seem to know what it is about, I will come back this we to make you a lesson about that.


     
    #10     Jan 30, 2004