1.Take a look at an hourly candle bund chart, 34 was a big technical level, going past that defined the "W" double bottom. 2.All the stops hit would have been placed there on Friday 18th after Trichet came out with his first "we will augment rates" comment which sent the bund into freefall. To many people that was a one way ticket put a stop in and go on holiday, rate hike cycle has begun. When he rubbished rumours on Monday about there going to be a series of hikes and in fact it would be just one and wait and see, back up we go. With the IFO at the lower end of the range and the CPIs all coming in -0.5 suddenly a hike looked completely wrong for germany. The ECB would actually be breaking its own rules by hiking if it were only considering the german data. Several firms then started calling for a good 2-2.5 point rally in bunds middle of the week. If I'd held a short on those first Trichet comments my stop would have been in the mid to high thirties, it makes sense on the chart. As we all think alike including the institutions bang, up up up. Most people I work with pulled their offers up the page when this level was being approached. Trichet was the cause.
That was the german state CPI for the most heavily weighted region (-0.5%) released just after IFO, can't remember which it was offhand, Hesse or Baden Wuttenburg but this trading floor was lifting at market. Certainly no inflation and a hike coming... Actually someone said it was the about the lowest reading in the last 5 years but I haven't checked that On top of all this Merkel's reforms for germany get more and more hollow with the battle occuring in the coalition
THe FT are saying the eurozone inflation figures are set to come in lower than last month's 2.5%, does question why trichet is hiking
There is an article by DJ (published on Friday?) which says, inflation seems to be at 2.3 and is likely to remain at this level for the first half of next year due to the high energy prices. Core inflation seems to be well below this level. 2.3 is above the target of the ECB of 2.0. Inflation figures in Germany seem to be below the figures for the other countries in the Euro zone. Looks like the hike will be a one-time event, no series of hikes. Regards Bernd Kuerbs