Most people go by the two consucutive quarters of negative GDP. There is no evidence what so ever that credit card spending is so called 'maxed out' or that the consumer is 'tapped out'. Also, US consumer isn;t as impotant with globalism. Forigners are taking advantage of the cheap dollar ot buy US goods for example. So far no negative GDp quarters.
Stock I didn't think it was possible, but you have lost any slight grip of reality that you had. Are you watching what is happening ib the credit markets? If the economy is ok why is the yield on the 2 year 1.48%? Muni's are getting crushed as well, and you can get a tax free yield much higher than taxable treasuries. Why are banks and brokers getting woodshedded on a daily basis? Heres a sobering thought, what if the market has already priced in a 75bp cut next week?
The consumer isn't "maxed out"? Guess that's why foreclosures continue to make new highs. Many of these people refinanced in the past, taking $$$$ out of their houses, to spend. They've now spent all that cash and many now owe more than their homes are worth. Negative savings rates. Most retailers are seeing horrible sales - exception is Wal-Mart. Logic says the consumer can't even afford stuff from the JC Penny, Sears, Target, etc. and can now only buy the "junk" from Wal-Mart. Oil at $108/barrel. That affects more than family transportation costs; groceries and most goods will go higher as transportation costs to retailers will be passed on. You clearly don't get it. Anyone with a brain saw this coming months and months ago. Stick with your negative 2 quarters for GDP if you wish. Too bad you refuse to play the short side. Could have made some decent money rather than watch all your profits erode.
The government calls a recession 2 quarters of negative growth which is why they ALWAYS declare it 6 months AFTER THE FACT. Many non Gov economists call it when they see it. Dr. Mark Zandi of economy.com has won several awards for his studies on REAL TIME economic analysis. He is not constrained by anyone as to what he says. Zandi says we are in recession. Not really a brilliant call as its everywhere you look. People aren't even buying cars now. Every major dealer except Toyota is way off. This includes many foreign brands. Trad3r, you are either completely blind, or so deep in shit on your long positions that you refuse to believe all but the rosiest forecasts. I've been in this game over 20 years and this is the ugliest I have ever seen it. This recession is going to be deep AND long. We will get the inevitable market bounces from time to time which will be sure to make you giddy as hell, but these bounces won't stick. Luckily, markets almost always bottom right smack in the middle of a recession. Calling that though is usually pretty tough. We certainly haven't had the capitulation yet. That won't be until people like yourself throw in the towel.
Bald kudlow shoudn't have been so doom and gloomy. Now he's gonna talk about goldilocks and how wonderful everything is when just two days ago he was pesimistic. Kinda makes him look like a fool. Although he is smarter than most people on CNBC his flip flopping doesn;t go unnoticed.
"smarter than most people on CNBC". Kudlow is an idiot, he's like cramer in the sense that both of them try to remain "right" no matter what happens. AWE stock turder's hero turned bearish. You should maybe pick a new hero like Charlie Gasparino.
Rick Santelli at the CME!!!! Gasparino is way too opinionated, full of vinegar and difficult to accept his reporting as being unbiased. On a good day, you can pretty much see his political leanings, his view on the story being reported, and what he (arrogantly) demands as an outcome to his reporting, as if he were important enough to expect that he should influence anything, other than his shirt and tie.
Kudlow has top notch ratings for his show, and has always been a bull. I truly believe he will push a bull view no matter what cause he gets paid to.
hopefully he'll be gone after November 2008 also.....along with his other(s) conservative, deceptive, uncaring, "D" student friends... after all, he is what he eats, and just like you said, he's a bull, has always been a bull, and always is full of