http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20070319/ts_csm/acostly put this in your bullish hash-pipe and smoke it a bit.
I don't really understand GROW - it's like a freaking dot com stock with such a low float. Cheap - hmm.. I think the price is about right compare to it's peers. Damn, look at China it open down 2.7% because their fed raised the rates and they said screw that and it went up to 3%.
I did that back in June, lost out on going long nearly everytime, fast foward to today and averaging down was probably the best thing to do. I look stocks today and still think many are overpriced. Ill wait for a nice close below 12k and maybe start adding long positions around DOW 11700-11800, we break that spread and im out until every bull is a bear.
hmmmm, bernanke will probably ignore that and say everything is fine, remember what kudlow says, this is a goldilocks economy.
and for the same reason, precisely why this 'bull' isn't really a bull - the indexes are merely inflation trackers. What makes this time very different from the early 80s is that long bond yields are extremely low right now. If the long bond yielded 16%, it would make sense to force multiples down. Earnings growth is very high right now. From an analysis perspective, it would be of more interest to me to look at historic PEG ratios of the major indexes. This would show a truer picture of valuation. On a chart showing past times of 15 forward PE averages on indexes, it would be interesting to know how far off current earnings growth is from the past ... I bet its a safe assumption many times fpe's were 15+ in the past, that earnings growth projections were nowhere near where they are now. I bet we're at very low historic PEGs ... Which implies risk premium post-99 years significantly killed multiples, and they may not recover for quite a long time. Why? Because stocks are dangerous and houses are safe. The very same mentality which is driving our attempt of flight from current excesses. So what happens when no one trusts houses ... (which takes a long time to happen) Where does the money go? multiples expand despite perhaps declining earnings growth. multiples move because of underlying market psychology -- and affect price probably more than earnings, in the big picture. Otherwise, the dow would be at 40k already.
Good thing I stayed the hell away from GROW today...one would think from yesterday that it'd continue upward?..no such luck.
Um guys... GROW is splitting on the 29th this month, or 9 days from now. The Of Record date was Mar 19... that was yesterday. Thus the huge growth spurt of everyone trying to get into that last Of Record before the split. Then... the momentum carried it up to $5+ today. Hrm. I THINK we all get a special $.50 per share one time dividend as of yesterday too, also payable on the 29th. I'd have to check. If that's the case, those who owned it yesterday and squeeked in will also get paid, even if they get out today. However... those who jumped in today and realized that they don't get in on the split probably bailed, accounting for the $3+ drop again. Don't feel bad, GROW only 'grew' by around $2 since yesterday's close. I'm glad I bought GROW at $35+ on 2/28. It's been a nice little gain. Also... if this behaves 'traditionally'... Grow will drop in price all the way to the split itself... THEN take off again. But I want my free shares, so I'm not selling. I can't believe you guys sold it with a split coming up. Splits are PURE PROFIT most of the time. The REASON GROW started dumping in Jan was because it didn't look like there would be enough votes for the split and people were getting tired of waiting since Nov for news about it. Once that cleared up, it's been moving up again. Gotta read the company news if you want to play individual stocks.
Grow is United States Global Investors and yet even a US team of 'global investors' can't even make thier own stock go up
I almost pulled the trigger on GROW today. I put in an order for 1000 shares at 41 and just when I was about to hit the confirm button - my senses kicked in and told me it was a damn trap and I cancelled everything. I just knew it wouldn't hold up and turned off the monitor for the day. Damn, the Asian markets are up. I was so sure it was gonna pull back tonite.
The split is meaningless - if I were to buy the stock today I would still get 2 for 1 on the stock split date. The only thing I won't get is the dividend.