There is a different formula to calculate moneyness from delta. The main difference lies in the interest rates, and for stock options, the dividends. But the difference is usually relatively small. Unless of course interest rates are through the roof, and the stock pays an extraordinary large divi. For all intents and purposes, the delta is a good proxy for moneyness.
I don't know what you are after but MU is of course correct. Risk neutral probability of an option ending ITM is something quite different from a delta of the option. For instance for a European call the (risk neutral) probability is integral from d2 to +infinity, i.e. N(d2) due to a symetry of the normal distribution. The delta is however N(d1) - which is clearly something different. And even the above is valid only under specific B-S assumptions...
What ... is ... your ... obsession ... with ... monkeys? You .. don't .. like .. them .. or something - what r.. u ..doing here..? Why do .. you .. want to whip ...monkey ass? Shouldn't --- you --- be --- in an S&M club for that? - this is the options forum...! Hey, I think I'm beginning to ... enjoy...writing.. like this. -- it's liberating. Something useful has .. come .. from cyof's posts after all (deep down he's a sweetie and probably just wants a big hug and cuddle). d.. b ...
Ahhhhh, it's Bulldozer or CYOF up to their old tricks. They've been banned from TW2 more times than I've had hot dinners. If you have a week or so spare, then this is the relevant thread . . . http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23221 Executive summary : Socrates/Bulldozer/CYOF started a "we're posting real trades" thread where all trades were written puts. Everyone else comes in with "yes but what about the margin?" comments which were never replied to. Trades go well for three or four weeks and guess what? Market tanks out big time. Margin shoots to a (ballpark) £500,000 - £750,000. The end-game was that Socrates stated he'd closed all short positions out the day before the crash. However, a quick look on the bloomberg screens and next days options listings from the exchange prooved otherwise. Bottom line, I believe the trades were opened, it is a fact they were not closed the day before the crash, I've no idea if Socrates was able to put up the margin. A little Spider tells me that Bull/CYOF/Socrates also run www.citybulls.com where you'll be charged £400 to be told the difference between american & european style options.
Thanks for that warning - you are obviously genuinely interested in helping us all. Please accept my apologies - I don't know what came over me, sometimes we say things we didn't mean in a public forum. Please give me some more advice and I promise I'll be a good little boy so you won't have to warn me again . If I do misbehave again (and I'll really try not to) you have my mommy's permission to give me a good ol' spankin'. Yours truly db (aka 'silly db')
That's interesting. So their motives for coming to ET is to drum up new business to recover some of their trading losses? db
I gave up a long time ago trying to work out these characters motivations! (Suspect this thread is about to kick off bigtime!)