Hurling insults? Not contributing to this thread? I'll tell you what. I'll let the members of ET decide if I am contributing to this thread or if I am, as you say, just hurling insults. I don't know why you are afraid of people are who are upfront and honest. The only question I have left of you, is what vendor you are working for. That I haven't figured out yet. Only a matter of time. You don't need to re-read my 3k posts, hell you won't even read my posts on this thread. Instead you are living in a fantasy world just making my posts up as you go. Hey, it's free country, do what you want. However, if we did a poll on this thread, I would argue that most people would think you are full of shit. But at this point, it really doesn't matter. Keep selling the juice man with your magical system. Oh and keep selling that juice on Friday for the easy weekend money! LOL. That has to be the most amateurish comment I have ever read on this board. LOL.
Maverick I respect your opinions and I know you have contributed to ET extensively and I have learned from your experiences personaly but I have to agree with this guy about positive expectancy trades and edges in the market place, they are exploited all the time by traders, surely your not suggesting that edges do not exist because if you are I will show you One on five random trades and you can be the judge.
like the following. this is why i see no value in talking with you. you just blow up like in all the other threads i bothered to scan in. it's not like you know a lot. what you know is just basic amateur options marketmaker stuff. nothing more fascinating than what a 6-month susquehanna clerk knows. sorry, mav, but not everyone here worships your options knowledge.
I've read every post in this thread and I've found Maverick's posts to be honest, forthright and refreshing - not sure why every thread has to turn into a d*ck measuring contest, if you can't make a rational argument without resorting to "I'm profitable so everything I say must be right" then why bother.
Nope, not saying that at all. But we need to define what an edge is first. There are three types of edges for the most part. One is a commission/technology edge. These are guys that can trade at lower costs then other guys. They also have the technology to trade faster and more efficiently. This can be regarded as an edge since everyone is not on a level playing field. The 2nd edge is order flow. This is mostly for guys on the floor but can also involve guys at trading desks at big banks that get order flow info. Order flow info can be a huge edge. And again, since we all don't have access to it, those that do are trading at an advantage. The 3rd edge is guys on the floor or OTC dealers that earn a spread for making a market. Sometimes they are able to complete a risk free arb with the order flow they get, other times they are simply earning the bid/ask on the trade. These edges are real and they are legitimate. They are true edges because not everyone has the ability to trade with them. Now on this board, you hear people talking about edge this and edge that. Hell, I even hear people saying that their discipline is an edge. Perhaps to them it is. But in my opinion, the only real edges that exist are the ones I listed. Now does that mean that one can't trade profitably without these edges? Of course not. No more then it means that those with these edges can't lose. In fact most of them do, even with the edges. Why? They are bad traders. A bad trader will offset and positive edge he has to begin with. Great traders can make money without an edge. The same way a great athlete can be successful in a sport even if he is smaller or shorter or slower then the other guys. But the idea that people have an edge, outside of the three things I have mentioned is erroneous. But an edge is not required to make a living trading. All the successful traders I know are successful because they are built differently then most people. They have a complete emotional detachment to money. They are incredibly discplined. And they work very hard. And when they come to the fork in the road and they have to make a decision, they usually make a very logical and intelligent decision based on the risk/reward and follow that up with stone cold discipline. I wish there were a secret. A secret software program, a secret method, strategy. But there isn't. This will piss off a lot of people. Many people in here already know this. It really doesn't matter. The only thing that matters at the end of the day is your p&l statement. You can call it whatever you want. If you want to tell people you have an edge, more power to you. Sometimes men tell that to their wives so they won't leave them after they have gone though all their savings trading. Other guys tell that to themselves to help them sleep at night or to keep themselves from slitting their wrist. In the end, we tell ourselves what we have to, in order to move on. If it helps to believe you have an edge, then so be it.
You know what Anseld, I changed my mind. I've got my credit card in hand. I'll take two of whatever your selling.
Maverick I agree with you and you are right about the ability to trade without emotion or second guessing yourself but I think that a lot of that is overcome IF you have a GOOD process that you can see works over and over. Call it an edge call it a banana I don't care. Just as an example : Take any pattern set up in John Murphy's book ie: a head and shoulders. Now let's say you where patient and precise and totally discipline and only traded THIS pattern the exact way that Murphy described it! Do you think over the course of 10 trades you would be profitable assuming that you stuck to the parameters exactly as outlined for stops and targets? I am not suggesting a Head and Shoulders pattern all by itself with no other filter is all you should use BUT it is pretty darn close to 70% accurate and that to me is an edge!
What about undestanding the relationship between two products better than anyone else in the world? How could that not be "edge" by your definition? [edit] right, i see your response below. You are going to say that everyone can do that, so it's not an edge. I suppose technically they are able to, but if they aren't smart enough to figure it out, it's an advantage, at least, if not an edge. [/edit] Or recieving and processing information faster and more accurately than other people?
Can you two just PM each other instead? It is apparent that someone on this thread has never taken a statistics course. It's frustrating to watch.