by the way, mav, why don't you reread this post and ask riskarb how his friends made money. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=803837&highlight=aspen#post803837 i am not surprised that they did well nor am i curious what they were doing because i already have a good idea of what kinda things they were doing. you seem to be stuck with the thought that "hey, if i can't make money doing this, then nobody else can!" that's just not convincing, mav, especially to someone who already's been doing the things that you tell everyone is so incredibly impossible to do. *shrugs*
i think you missed my point. if there is someone that proclaims they use a system that consistently makes money then there should be some sort of evidence that supports the claim. i'll go at this another way. pick any system you want. tell us what the next trade is. or maybe to be fair and statistically thorough, the next 3000 trades. i don't have to know the system, the methodology or the rationale. all that matters is that this is a mechanical system that generates trade decisions based on pre-programmed rules and objective decisions. i will then take the exact opposite trade. at the end of 3000 trades lets see which "system" is more successful. i'm being facetious - mainly because i'm not sure that i'd be up to the challenge of taking on even one trade - but i hope you can see my point. no matter how wonderful the supposed system is, the trader has to go into the market to execute it. do you believe the market makers on the other side of that trade are consistently being duped by this system- trading-money-machine? no. because each trade to a MM is a positive expectancy event.
I'm honestly surprised that guys with as much experience as you two (or three) claim to have make such absurd statements. Are you guys saying you've never seen a successful black box trading program? - The New Guy
I cannot believe I am still having this conversation. Anseld, I have been a consistently profitable trader for 9 years. Please for the love of God will you quote me where I said trading options is impossible. Please, show me the quote. You are losing your mind. You are just making shit up as you go. The fact that riskarb's friends have made money only proves my point. One, that making money has nothing to do with selling juice, but rather the fact they are great traders. I'm sure he will come in here and back me up on that. Something else riskarb will probably tell you as he has traded himself for about 20 years. He has probably met thousands of traders over the years. I bet he can count on one hand how many he knows who are profitable. You just simply do not get it. Maybe I am not doing a good job communicating with you. Maybe someone else can jump in here and say it better then I am. The problem I am having talking to you is you keep quoting things I have never said and you refuse to read my posts before you respond to them. Maybe you want to come down to the CBOE and you can take a look at my sheets. You can determine what kind of trader I am and how profitable I am. Maybe that will shut you up. I really don't know at this point. I am trying to have an intelligent argument with you but you continue to miss the points I am making. For the last freaking time. There is no edge in selling juice. There are no magical systems. A good trader can make money buying or selling premium. Less then 5% of all option traders are profitable. Someone else please jump in here if I am not making myself perfectly clear. I feel like I am talking to a child. I think the reality is I am talking to a vendor who is trolling for PMs.
I'm totally tied and I cannot continue this argument. If I can think of an example that I am allowed to explain, I will post it. But in all honesty, I'm just so surprised that you guys think the market is effecient. How do you guys make money then? - The New Guy
I often sell cash-secured puts in my wife's IRA (up 13% through June 30). Imo, one has to sell puts that are already slightly itm in order to maximize risk/reward. Selling otm--not worth it, imo.
sure i've heard of 'em. long term capital management (LTCM) comes to mind. black boxes tend to work until they don't.
So a system has to work for infinity to be a sucessful system? Also, it wasn't really their system that brought them down, but lack of appropriate money management. - The New Guy
if you've been a profitable trader, good for you. you certainly don't act like it with your level of whining. you seem to be more interested in hurling insults than contributing to a thread. you keep on saying there is no edge (this is such an overused word) in selling juice, but what you refuse to admit is that there is edge when you have a system that takes advantage of selling juice. you obviously don't know how that can be, so you're vehemently attacking someone who knows high probable ways to create that positive expectancy. so you want me to read 3K of your posts? for what purpose? to remind myself that i'm communicating with someone who must have the last word in every thread or someone who vigrorously advertises for quardiga? LOL. no thanks. no value in reading anymore. and sorry to break your obviously massive ego, but i just don't worship your knowledge as much as you do.