I have this wretched feeling that tommorrow will be an awful day. In February, the correction was expected. Lots of puts on the market. Puts and short interest saved us. This time I feel as if that insurance policy is not there. (I looked at the put/call ratio and ISEE# to confirm there are lots of calls on the market.) There is some economic news at 8:30, but the PPI # on Friday will be the sinker. Its going to come in too hot confirming inflation risk. Thursday might be ok, but Friday wont be ok. Its a very wretched feeling indeed and I only wish Bush had elected a different Fed chairman. This makes me sick to my stomach. That formation on the charts is a bearish wedge.
I agree it doesn't look good. However going forward with a bit longer view to mid june I think the markets will be quite a bit lower than at present. Was and still am considering placing a debit spread on the june spx 1435/1430 put @ $1.50 apx X 50 contracts. Opinions welcome on this idea thx.
Yes, and the recently implemented portfolio margin is going to make any downward move worse than it would have otherwise been, especially as we are at record low net cash levels. I don't know if it will happen Friday or not but when it does it will be impressive.
I found this graph on Tom2oc's blogspot. A break below 12400 will get us to 12200. What needs to happen is this tonight. The Asian and European markets need to remain cool. The economic news tommorrow (job number, import, exports, etc) needs to be sound.
I have a gleeful feeling that my puts will continue to appreciate. But, hey, ya never know. And if we do sell off for the next 3 - 5 days, or even longer, it's not the apocalypse. The world economy seems to be in very good shape.