Discussion in 'Trading' started by Div_Arb, Apr 20, 2007.
I think a blowoff top is near...
tough to say, im leaning towards a 5% chance on that.
After Shanghai fell over 4%, the next day it nearly gained back all its losses.
One thing I think is for sure, the world equity markets cannot continue to maintain this pace forever.
That's more important a point then people realize.
It shows emotion is trending back to the upside after the debacle on the A-PAC/NYSE earlier this year.
Once we start getting complacent again, look for a minor-trend reversal.(near-term)
For the next few weeks, our boards are green.
What pace? In February markets lost an avg. of ~8% of their value overnight. That large sucking sound was free-markets correcting themselves for another push higher. We are going to trend higher for the near future.
Options expiration...I'm expecting a narrow, mind-numbing range after this first hour.
i think one more push at intraday highs.
The pace since then. Look, don't get your panties in a bunch. I'm not saying we're crashing, nor am I saying to fade anything. I'm just saying we can't continue to make new highs forever without a severe correction. The more extreme a market goes in one direction, the more extreme the correction must be.
No worries - I un-bunched my panties.
we only recently started making new highs - and only in the DOW. Don't forget this is the DOW - companies that are international conglomerates making most of their money outside the US. The only people that use the DOW as a barometer of health are warren buffet and CNBC.
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