You may want to check out ElectricSavant's Cash & Carry journal. The periodically updated spreadsheet there, interestcow.xls, ranks all the currency pairs offered by Oanda, by their carry / interest rate differential.
Despite the easy words, still not clear I'm afraid... What I do know for sure is that I was right about you missing a few things along the line. My quoted point in your note has nothing to do with gambling nor with luck but is all about my personal humbleness and respect for a massively complicated, powerful and tricky market of which traders often think they can forecast it, or can get control of in one or another way. The reality however is that market entry is the only thing we really control... I have accepted this already a long time ago. With a real statistical edge, sound money management and position sizing and lots of discipline in trading ONLY what you see, one can only hope to be profitable in the long term. The rest is balloney of the purest kind. PS 1 Successful traders however do need forecasters, star gazers, crystal ball watchers and EW traders in the markets to get their pockets filled on a regular basis, so please do stay for another while. PS 2 Taking a long position of 2 MM Euro against the USD will NOT spike the FX market buddy... not even close.
You're a strange bird, I'm sure everyone watching agrees. And a large 6 yard buy on the EUR doesn't spike it all the way up. It spikes enough to get everyone on board making a run on stops, which creates momentum. Cheers.
The Euro merely bounced off of a perceivable support area hammered out in 2004. Whoop de doo. Doesn't mean poop, unless Asia believes it's worth more than poop, as it works its global currency portfolio. In that case, hedgies are spreading everywhere outside the U.S. dollar. In the end, the dollar will be worth less, as Chinese copygoods are worth more, giving American businesses a fair chance to compete with their innovations, without going to China and giving it all away. The Euro is as good as Europe, not how bad the U.S. is. Why? Because China is a player now. It's not just China, but how China influences the rest of the Asians who were influential in the 20th Century when China was in its Communist Coma. Only China can change Japan's monetary policy.