No one knows how this will play out, yet. One thing is clear, financial authorities (IMF, some Central banks, etc.) are losing control of the situation resorting to desperate, dangerous measures, such as the current debacle unfolding in Cyprus.
if you owe the bank a little bit of money they own you. if you owe the bank a lot of money you own the bank. the bank in this case is Germany. cyprus has called their bluff. Germany will cave in unless russia does an lbo of Cyprus(metaphorically)
Don't know about Taiwan but Hong Kong and Singapore suffer from the same disadvantages as Cyprus i.e. small countries, relatively small population, over sized banking sector and few natural resources ( Cyprus at least has some agriculture) with all that said since they are both predominantly Chinese, China will probably bail them out in case of a disaster as Russia may bail out Greek Cypriots ( their distant cousins, both are Slavic nations with Orthodox faith). Look during the credit crisis Switzerland was hanging at the edge of precipice if the Fed had not loaned them twice very large sums they might have gone under. I am not implying SwiTzerland is Cyprus, Swiss have Nestle, Sandoz, Rolex but they also have UBS and CS.
ECB announcement that it will cut-off emergency liquidity assistance to Cypriot banks on Tuesday if no EU-IMF bailout deal is reached. If this happens, and Cyprus has secured no other source of funds, deposit holders its banks could lose everything as the island cannot afford deposit guarantees.
Sounds harsh but the solvent banks MUST cut adrift the failures or they will pull them down too. The Russians may end up owning a bank in Cyprus ? The previous managers may be thinking of distant places to hide !!
Why would Russia want to bail out Cyprus prematurely? If I were Putin, I'd sit back and let the island fail, remove itself from the EMU (or allow it to be kicked out, either way) then come in and buy everything on the cheap.
Because Russia is about to lose their only Mediterranean naval base as Assad in Syria is about to fall thus this is a strategic necessity rather than economic... We are only talking about $5 billion, its nothing for a large, resource rich nation like Russia eg Carlos Slim, Bill Gates or Warren Buffet or any of the 1st twenty on Forbes rich list can bail out Cyprus on their own, after all their entire GDP is $23 billion...