Or 50-1 that they will raise by 0.5? Because those are the odds at befair. Its pretty unlikely but I think these odds are ridiculous
I'll give 100000-1 if FOMC cuts rates by 0.50. It's a complete imposiblity. I'll give 1000-1 for a raise by 0.5
Then you can easly became rich by betting on the favorite result. Why dont you do it. Till one day a surprise comes and ....
I guess in such cases with very small edge, the spreads and/or commissions will eat all your profits.
Its also 49-1 they will cut -0.25 1.1-1 for +0.25 0.75-1 for no change You tell me there is no significant edge here?Come on, its a bunch of gamblers betting on the favorite outcome because its satisfying psychologically to do so(and then justify it with all sorts of news). I mean I bet if I look over history its probably something like 30-1 that the action they took on was not expected. But I would like to hear opinions from other people
Did you get those odds-numbers from tradesports.com or hedgestreet.com? If you believe there's "free money" to be made by spreading those "odds" versus the Fed Funds futures & options, you should put on as large of a position as possible. Let us know how that goes.