Would you short QM now or wait till it's reached $86?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Arni, Nov 9, 2021.

  1. maxinger

    maxinger

    years ago, I used to do such a thing;
    short it the price hit resistance level.

    of course, I had to top up my account numerous times.
     
    #21     Nov 9, 2021
    Arni likes this.
  2. Arni

    Arni

    Haha, but you made the necessary adjustments, care to share those adjustments? I'm all ears :)
    have any advice for a younger you?
     
    #22     Nov 9, 2021
  3. maxinger

    maxinger


    Timing is very important.
    WHEN to enter is important.

    your timing was wrong.
    I am sure you have done lots of reading.
    Unfortunately, many trading books don't really focus on when to enter.
    I don't have any trading books to recommend to you as most of
    the trading books were written by professional writers.
    Do focus on the WHEN.
     
    #23     Nov 9, 2021
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  4. Arni

    Arni

    Gonna keep coming back to this page for a good week, please feel free to leave as many tips as you'd like, I have a lot to learn :)
     
    #24     Nov 9, 2021
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    A good future contract to trade? Well, they are all good, if they are liquid.

    As for the fundamentals of CL? Nah, I wouldn't know the best source for them. Some 4 years ago I started looking at the Eikon terminal data on where ships were heading, the whole Cushing flyover thing each week for inventory levels (But then there's something those guys don't tell you...The EIA forecasters take data from all PAADs, not just Cushing).

    It all became gelled into a ball of bullshit. The basics of an instrument like CL and the upstream/downstream flows were too much for me.

    You can attempt all the TA you want in CL, but I feel that it is a mostly fundamentally-driven instrument, with a caveat...You must consider OPEC+JMMC+Biden+travel demand+++++.

    It's nuts.

    My instinct tells me we are at a peak, and we will NOT see $100 oil again in the next few years. But that is IMHO totally. Keep an eye on it and trade accordingly if you wish to pursue it.
     
    #25     Nov 9, 2021
    Arni likes this.
  6. Arni

    Arni

    My timing was off by merely 2 candles, each candle one hour :p
    If I trade the 1min it would reduce my timing problem by a huge margin, don't you think :D
     
    #26     Nov 9, 2021
  7. Arni

    Arni

    Wow, brilliant food for thought, thank you.

    Initially I picked /QM as its one of the most affordable even though the volume barely exceeds 20k/day. /ES and /GC make my top 3 futures, but the capital inflows and outflows aren't related, at least that's what I assume :)
     
    #27     Nov 9, 2021
  8. Overnight

    Overnight

    If I were you, I would take a peek at the micro CL futures, not the QM mini crap, which seems awful. Low volume, cash-settled nonsense with the weird 12.50 per tick thing, if I remember correctly?
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2021
    #28     Nov 9, 2021
  9. maxinger

    maxinger

    are you doing day or swing trading?

    as of now, chances of success in shorting it are < 20%.

    It will go down sooner or later.
    Just that as of now, there is no indication /confirmation it is going down.

    so if you short it now,
    you are anticipating /predicting that it will go down when there is no
    indication / confirmation that it is going down.

    Timing (When to enter) is very important so as to
    improve success rate to say 60%.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2021
    #29     Nov 9, 2021
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  10. maxinger

    maxinger


    right.
    GCL biggest volume
    QM (mini) lowest volume
    MCL (micro) average volume
     
    #30     Nov 9, 2021