Learn to code. You'll thank me later. And it's not that complicated. You just need to take one little step at a time. You'll be surprised how fast it goes.
I mean that in our daily jobs we handle way more important data than a trading model. Fullnames, addresses, passports, national ids, phone numbers, medical reports and so on, and we don't "run away" with it. When you require a technical service there is always a level of trust implied. A developer that sees your model as a potential working model will never disclose it, for the very same reason that if he does disclose it there is a risk that the model will stop working. Don't you think that developers that work for financial institutions can see their models? Of course they do, but they understand that they work because they are unique. You have to trust someone at some point to make a trading model to work.
Only you can asses how much value he could possibly add. The fact he is a stranger increases the risk. References will only tell you how good and reliable a programmer he was. But this more of a business partnership which is a different animal.
Actually, I'd be surprised. I have done some basic coding in VBA, but I suspect that it would take me a long time to be able to produce a model similar to what I have today on my own. It needs to import data, update data, make calculations, store it in a DB and display it in a front end. I'd be very surprised if I'd be able to create this on my own without first making a huge investment in learning to program. That said, I do want to learn to program. But time is at a premium these days and I'm not sure I'd be able to invest enough time to get anywhere fast.
Sure. But if you did that in a job there would be legal ramifications and you could potentially end up in jail or sued all the way to complete bankruptcy: https://www.wired.com/2009/07/aleynikov/ I don't think it's comparable to my situation.
There's a lot of un-knowns for sure. I do think he's able enough as a programmer. Having some trading savvy also should help. It's also an added trust that he lives in my own country and not that far from me. Other concerns is that maybe he'll end up losing interest and will come up with some excuse (real or not) for not completing the job. Or that he'll continue on his own after having learned what he needs from me. I wasn't actively seeking this out either, but it arose from a discussion around programming in general and it seems like a potentially great opportunity. I think he had low expectations initially, but after having learned the base idea he's very impressed with that he's seen so far and eager to take it on. In terms of programming, I figure it can be done in 2-3 weeks of full-time work. So, I could hire someone as well, but I imagine that would cost a bit if I am to do it properly.
The information that we learn about/find out about the game, is like the gold dust that someone mentioned here. Once you give it away, your value to someone, who was potentially into the ,,relationship'', just because of it is gone. (a solution, someone who is not ,,into the game" at all/doesn't know about it) Worse than that is, when we give it away to someone who does not ,,deserve it'' or to a bad person. I already made those mistakes. Men, that later on turned out to be a-holes. When you think to yourself ,,Woah, imagine what he would do, if he got rich'' But we learn. As Dalio said, - ,,It's okay to make mistakes, yet, we don't like when people are repeating the same mistakes'' I think, my little dream/goal, is to find/meet a worthy people along the way, with, good morals, through out my life and somewhere along the way, or in the end of the journey, try to share with them all that i have learned. Like, before you die, if, you know, that potentially, 3 or 5 folk, who are the right human beings, will be able to accumulate capital in their lives and gonna do some great/right stuff with it (philanthropy etc), that's a calming thought. A good start, once you decide to share the first few mils : (building in a city, where's nothing alike & prioritizing kidos from povertyline families)
Was reading through and was curious about few things. First, I don’t think you have mentioned the degree of discretion involved in actually trading the model. If it can’t be 100% automated, then can a person confidently trade it without decades of experience with it? Second, it doesn’t sound like your edge can be easily eroded by a few (hundred?) others trading it. So that risk is small. Is it possible that the programmer will end up on the loosing end of this for any reason? I would not want a person with my system being upset at me! Have you considered some sort of profit sharing arrangement so that the programmer is actually interested in maintaining long term relationship while the new software is being tested and the programmer learns how to trade it? I would make sure project is done in stages. Don’t give the programmer old code, give him/her requirements with the IP piece being the last stage.