Discussion in 'Economics' started by eagle488, Sep 29, 2006.
If you had a choice, would you buy a house anywhere in the United States right now?
No.....wait a year or two.....you should get price improvement without a doubt (there will be some very nice foreclosures to pick up cheap in the next few years...20% to 30% lower than current pricing). Also the interest rates should go lower again too.....better time to buy then imo.
Five or six years ago there was a dude from Forbes who said he sold his house and was renting because the market was oversold and was going to crash. lol
Look at the dates of the articles after you read them. Real Estate is a cyclical investment like everything else. You have your ups and downs and you have to know which part of the cycle you are in.
I believe we are on the down trend for real estate at the current time and dont believe we will see a "bottom" for at least 2 years. It may last as long as 5-7 years. At some point, the prices will consolidate and then thats when you buy.
One thing I am confident about is that the upturn in real estate was caused by September 11th and the tech crash. If it were not for those events, you would not have seen so much appreciation in real estate. The tech crash spoiled investors attitudes on the stock market and 9/11 created super low interest rates.
Now we are past 9/11, the economy is strong and the stock market is making new highs. Investors will now turn to the stock market once more. In a few years, many people will forget about the super price appreciation in real estate as they turn to the stock market.
Give it 3-5 years when you no longer here anyone in the Starbucks talking about their home and thats when you buy...
I wouldn't touch RE with a 10 foot poll.
It'd be the same as buying into tech stocks in 1999.
I don't materially disagree but just as all stocks were not tech, not all real estate markets are stretched beyond belief.
I'd guess there's guys who live in the North (Chicago included) who's homes have only doubled or tripled in the last quarter century. Meanwhile the Dow is up 15x in that span.
Likewise there's sun-belt homes that have tripled this decade.
Imo, the places that will hold relatively firm are the locales on the cusp of the sun-belt. Cities like Charlotte, Greenville, Nashville, Austin and while I've never been there, it seems Boise is attracting a lot of "spreaders". Those being Bay Area and Seattle ex-pats. Rarely are individual issues within an asset class treated equally. This contraction/break will be no different.
yes. in my part of the country you can buy homes for what it costs to build them. we have lots of land and many builders competing. you can buy new starter homes starting at 120k and you can buy very nice 2500 sq ft homes with quality components for less than 300k. we never did get into the bubble with prices.
i have heard stories of people who have sold their million dollar shitbox in california, moved here, built a new house for 300k and banked the difference. they end up with a new house, no commute, no crime, no income tax,top schools and a huge cash cushion in the bank.
Its the same way here in Raleigh and appears to be even cheaper in Winston Salem but some friends moved here from Ohio and thought that the prices were high.
Where are you from?
I'm always looking for a better place where I can sock some of that profit away. On the other hand, money isn't everything. I looked all over the south east coastal states before moving here.
sioux falls south dakota.
Thanks for the reply.
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