No way. Not in this market. You might get away with simple stuff trading microcaps no one's ever heard of that barely break 100K shares/day. But fx will eat this shit alive. Those major moves you want to catch are often 60+pip jumps after news events where no tight stop will stand the volatility beforehand; after that it's chop and slop until the intraday scalpers are exhausted and resign in frustration by the close. You will need to do better than that. Embrace the complex, embrace uncertainty. Don't depend on repetition to make your living in this market. To exaggerate, if you can't picture a central bank implementing a strategy you're thinking about (ie, buy this or that bar's breakout, sell that 5-min H&S top, whatever), don't bother with it. It won't last.
Well, if you have a tight enough stop, you'll also have a comparable profit target. Thus, it would keep you HONEST with your trading with respect to your money management plan. What you don't want to do is to be on the opposite side of a fast moving market.. its like you throwing away money. Thus, it is better to have a tight stop when the volatility is high. It also means, the faster you can get out of a losing trade, the faster you'll get yourself in a winning trade. What's wrong with Bar Breakout? It is the same thing central banks would do, only that it is on a smaller scale on a shorter time frame. Central Banks would be playing the major economic trends, they are using a 5 Quarter breakouts while most traders would be using a 5 bar breakout. Most trading/investing strategies can be broken down barebones into one or two essential strategies.
well i have to start somewhere. Atm i need strategies so i can make money on the market. i have no problem with complex systems or strategys as long as they work. I fear that my 1 minute timing and that i have been making money is just a fluke. I have also been using the SMA indicators 10,20,30 - and when the bars cross eachother that is an indication of a bullish or bearish move. The other indicators seem complex - Do you guys find them helpfull and neccessary
Wow, three moving averages at once? Never thought about it like that. But, you can throw in one more SMA, say like a 40 SMA and that'll make sure that you get yourself into surer trades. It will also helps you out with your winning percentage.
I can trade the news - but between news the market still moves. And the only way i think to gauge which way the market is going is to look at the Charts. For example. I made a hypothosis on the 8th about GBP/USD going long. Then the terror alert changed all that - the GBP went bearish for a while - I believe it may be going bullish again after everything is back to normal.
You don't get it. You don't just tighten your stop to the point where it reaches an "acceptable" risk/reward level, relative to your imagined target. The point of the stop is to keep you in the trade until you are wrong. A tight stop (in either direction) won't keep you in any position, right or wrong, when volatility is running high. Sometimes you can get away with a tight stop; other times you are better off cancelling your stops. And if you can't stomach that kind of position, then just might as well go flat and find another opportunity. But the market conditions combined with how timely your entry was will dictate how far your stops should be.
Why do people always want to start with the shortest time frames? Why not start with 60min bars, and target 100+ pip moves?
So that they can lose faster, and move on with their next pursuit. Why spend too much time on something that you're eventually going to fail anyways. ________ I learned something new on your previous post. Thanks for the info.
i think its the feeling of making money instantly. for example put $1000 down - make a 20 pip move and you have $200. I actually turned away from the 60 minute chart at the moment - I dont wanna wait a week to make a 100 pip move on a mini account.