I agree with virtually everything you wrote. Yes there are historical precedents to this. I'm concerned though about both the greater leverage of present plus the higher jumping off point in real prices. Homes in Stamford back then were breaking from 450k to 300k. Today they're coming of a 1.450 high. God forbid if we actually fill in those prices going back to the late 90's "breakout" levels. Like you I keep historical fractals in my head and I'm probably being too alarmist but I'll tell you: This Nikkei break is an eye opener. Never in a hundred years did I think they'd come all the way down and make a new multi-decade low again. It has me spooked that this indeed could be the "big one."
as i subscribe to a paper called "the commercial record"; i am surprised to see home prices holding and homeowners still getting big mortgages. regarding stamford, prices are down from 703k to 620k year over year and sold homes in 07 @ 562 ytd compared to 338 ytd for 2008. it is possible for another shoe to drop like a big leg down in the job market breaking the resiliency of home prices and screwing the market for a longer time than i would want. maybe it will suck for 4 years instead of 3! you know my view's are very similar to yours on most stuff; regardless of the bashers.
Ok, I can understand tossing Clinton's name in there, but how does Barney Frank manage to be the *one* Congressman you mention when Republicans controlled both the Senate the House from 1995 to 2007, with the last six years of that tenure coinciding with a Republican president? Are you telling me one gay NE liberal had the power to run roughshod over President "Mission Accomplished", VP Haliburton, Karl "Killer" Rove, and a Congress of near-evangelical self-professed "conservatives"?
I'll put it real frank: what is happening in Japan scares the shit out of me. My historical analogue so far has been '66-'82, with us currently around '74, but I'm having to rethink the premise. This could, honestly, be The One. As alarmist as it may sound, by historical measures we are overdue for a right proper global financial panic...
That Nikkei low was ominous. Didn't Martin Armstrong predicted that if it couldn't get pass 21k it would make a new low? He is also predicting an apocaliptic high on 4/09, as in the last high we will see before a deeper low into 2011. Do members here believe he is just a fraud?
Take your fucking political rant to the appropriate thread and shut the fuck up in here, bitch boys. The election is over.
As someone not acquainted with the Nikkei index enough to understand what you are focused on... what is extraordinary about this break? Is it that the Nikkei index has dropped like our Dow Jones index? Or that if Japan sneezes, the rest of Asia gets a cold? Something like that? Thanks for any comment from anyone.