I've always been amazed at how bad my judgement is on the probable direction of the market. I thought once about starting an advisory service where I would post my predictions, the idea being that you would do the opposite. I believe it would work but I doubt I could stir up too much interest. Fortunately for my trading I stopped trading on ideas and started trading off the tape. What always puzzled me was that I should have had a 50/50 chance of being right but its more like 40/60 against me. Well I just finished reading this quote by William Eckhardt: "The extremeness of the outcome in this story seems to support an apparent phenomenom that I have observed many times over the years, but for which I have no hard evidence: The majority of people trade worse than a purely random trader would." This guy has been reasearching the market and designing systems for many years.