Not a great example. Most European countries, Japan, Korea are decades ahead of US trains as well. Many AI breakthroughs happen in China nowadays. Just looking at the most popular tools and you see many are created or developed by Chinese. Chip manufacturing is different though. China has been trying hard, they've spend fortunes on it, hired people from TSMC etc. I think most people underestimate the complexity and difficulty required.
I expect it happen much sooner than later, I predict it'll happen even within the next 5 years, but not later than 2030, IMO. They are already at 7nm, the Westerners are at 3 or 2nm. I think, China will find a way to beat them all and reduce it even further into the 900'ish pm (pico meter) area... Then China will become the leader in microchips. TSMC and ASML will be the biggest loosers then, incl Taiwan as a whole... If above prediction holds, then it makes sense to short TSM Stock, or buy LEAPS Puts of TSM, or shortsell LEAPS Calls of these Western chip companies, incl. ASML etc.
there is a physics law beyond what we can pack into a chip, everyone is researching the next gen tech, simply can’t dismiss anyone from anywhere.
For what it's worth: From: Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday. To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship [a big exaggeration here. That's not possible - terr]. Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight. With the new Biden sanctions, all American suppliers of IP blocks, components, and services departed overnight —— thus cutting off all service [to China]. Long story short, every advanced node semiconductor company is currently facing comprehensive supply cut-off, resignations from all American staff, and immediate operations paralysis. Everyone from Lam Research at Yangtze Memory left today, and on the 12th the AMAT folks will leave as well Not just Yangtze, but also HLMC, ICRD’s Jiading fab, Hefei’s CXMT DRAM fab All leaving Even Geehy in Hangzhou is pausing operations] All Chinese advanced computing chip design companies are covered by these sanctions, and TSMC will no longer do any tape-out for them from now on; The starting point for this round of sanctions is to go all the way up the food chain and ensure the elimination of all American products and technologies from the entire ecosystem; Any company or individual who violates these sanctions face arrest by the US Department of Justice..
It's the USA that chose this direction. All to prevent China to get hi-tech. Poor soul USA. The Chinese will quickly adapt to the new situation...
These Western companies cannot return to the Chinese market, I think. Anybody know whether AMD too is involved in this?
Quickly adapt to what exactly? They need 10 years at minimum to catch up. They've been trying for decades already. If you think it's something easily doable, why haven't more countries launched their semi industries.
Let the chips fall where they may. I can only assume those US persons in China are mostly in management positions, not scientists or line workers. That’s why the chip stocks are down. I own lot of chips stocks, AMD and NVDA in particular. Oh well, selling covered calls.