If all the demand evaporates for labor then market will correct itself and Chinese wages will again be $10 a day for electronic assembly etc. ---------------------------------- It already is. I have Clients in China who own manufacture plants. They live in Beijing but their plants are in the country. A few have shut a couple of their plants down. Indonesia, Vietnam, Papa New Guinea are where many US and EURO Plants are moving to. Wages are lower in those countries than China now. Demand Spike in China is coming back into a Equilibrium...Hence the GDP forecast for China in single digits now. Not saying there is a crash...but there is unwinding of the bubble there as well. China's biggest game changer is Energy. That is why she is out buying up oil producing fields all over the Globe including here in the US. I get calls from China a least once a month looking for "Energy Plays" on Drilling.
We are indeed, doomed... without major reform. Sad part... we did it to ourselves out of greed.... -------------------------------------------------------------- "WE" are not doomed. The Structure of the average Joe is Doomed. The high paying Jobs in the Service sector, sitting around pushing papers in a cubical is doomed. The Failed Mega Banks and the hoards of over fatt'ned work force in the Financial Industry are doomed. Those who are 5x in debt, and will never get out of that rut are doomed. The million of students who studied "Multiculturalism", Womens Studies, African American Studies and all those studies that took away from a true solid liberal arts education in the Maths, Sciences, Economics, History and Literature, ...are doomed. MBA's are doomed as the Corporate Industry is Shunned, reorganized and tabooed. The Welfare state and it's recipients are doomed. States, Munis and local gov's who are debt are Doomed. But "WE" are not doomed. There will be many of us who survive, prosper and continue to exist. There are plenty of individuals in the US who are capitalist of all sizes, who will survive as the Mass of Ignorant Sleeping Population slowly fall into poverty.
You are right about the demographics. Our fastest growing ethnic group has a high rate of high school drop outs, a 50% illegitimacy rate, and high rates of welfare dependency. Those the the people that the politicians and pundits tell us will bail out social security. Yeah, right.
If the government destroys the $USD in their effort to "inflate our way out of the debt mess", you could have $50,000,000... and you'd still be doomed. (Hint: you can't buy squat with Monopoly money.)
America could be lean and mean five years from now.. We are headed for energy independence, if the Fed Level Public Sector could inflate themselves out of the debt overhead they could get going again investing in things that grow America [Education, R&D] instead of the current regimes moronic stuff [Teacher's Unions, Inner City Reservations, NASA cutbacks, Washington DC Attorneys leading the Nation in Wealth, etc. ad infinitum ad nauseum]. I'm reading predictions with regard to inflation and, while we are not due for any at all in the context of the Long Cycle, if we had a couple of years of 20% followed by a couple of years of 100% the Federal Public Sector debt load would be small and we would be back to business as usual.. The Public Sector at other levels cannot inflate their way so they are cutting back on all the stuff they promised everybody, ie Medicaid. Retirement contracts will be renegotiated along the way as well... Those Union retirement contracts get put on the table in negotiations all the time. Unions will reduce retirees take in order to get a wage increase for current workers because the current workers offer them leverage while retirees are just on the sidelines.. We really are headed for some massive upheavel but when the smoke clears the scenario could be a lot different and a lot more promising for the next few generations...
If the government destroys the $USD, you could have $50,000,000... and you'd still be doomed. (Hint: you can't buy squat with Monopoly money.) ----------------- Very true...but I do not see the destruction of the dollar. I see the devaluing of the dollar but so far no destruction. And now with the EMU problems ......Dollar is more likely the choice for "Trade Currency" for decade or more. Oil is still purchased and priced on the dollar. The IDEA that the GOV, no matter how much of a scumbag they are.. is destroying the dollar is assnine.
I doubt anything gets "more promising" until (1) the Boomers have died, and (2) public employees change from tax-payer-guaranteed-retirement-benefits to "defined-contribution, 401K-type" benefits. 30-40 years maybe? Until then, it's going to be like Grandpa used to say... "hope in one hand, shit in the other... see which gets filled up first".
They did it in Rome, Germany, Zimbabwe, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil (several times), et al. What makes you think American politicians are any smarter or less greedy/chicken-shit than others?
We really are headed for some massive upheavel but when the smoke clears the scenario could be a lot different and a lot more promising for the next few generations... --------------------------------------- I agree. And that will be handled by violence, jails, and Martial Law if it comes to that. POVERTY will beat most of the Upheaval. There is definitively a CLASS WAR but the OWS fans are the ones on the loosing end. SOCIALISM WILL NOT WIN in this country. We will go through changes, ie: Wall Street will not exist the same way as it has since the 1920s, Mega Banks will loose power, people will be forced to live within their means. The Revolution, at first could be violent but it will not take long for the Violence to end. ARGENTINA is a study case of a system collapsing, dollar collapsing and over all economy collapsing. There is nothing new under the sun, we are not the first country to go down this road. However, we are at a cross roads. Yet, IMHO, even if the majority of the people in the US stay the course for "Socialism" and if Obama is re-elected...... The masses may suffer but plenty others will continue to prosper. Yet, IMHO the country will be divided into State's that are like IL, NY, CA and champion Liberal/Socialism and there will be states like ND, TX, AZ, et that will champion Capitalism. The FED gov controls nothing, their control is an illusion based on FEAR. The do have a hand in day to day operations, but they do not control my life, my wealth, or my future. I play by the rules and at the end of the day, I prevail.
They aren't. The US Public Sector spending at the Federal level went higher even after Republicans came back on the scene.. We're definitely headed for inflation.. that will take care of the Boomers on fixed incomes pretty muchly... Who is going to rule after the upheaval is the real question..