Although most of what NoD said is valid, I will focus in on this particular point. When I get stopped it actually makes me excited for the next setup. Because of my stats I know what my win rate should be, and a failed setup gets me closer to the next setup that statistically should run for my full profit target.
I agree, it's a lot of work. Ninja Trader offers a host of analytics in their software, I found the MFE (maximum favorable excursion) & MAE (maximum adverse excursion) data to be most helpful when defining and refining my stop and target placement. I've used the same software for years, so I have no idea what other platforms offer. I also agree, it's well worth it in the end. I call it, The Max Factor
Hey guys, Thanks for the replies... I actually had an ok day on Friday, but I finished early because I had really 2 bone head stupid trades in a row so I decided to call it quits. In regards to strategies, I think what I am doing has an edge...its the whole implementation of that seems to cause problems. Well, not completely true. The strategies are not very black and white, and I still need to work on that. They are more guidelines. The other thing about analyzing trades and bar by bar analysis. I think I may be over analyzing and maybe overthinking stuff a bit too much. Im working on finding a happy medium. For example, most of the time when I take a bad trade, I can figure out within a minute or two why it didn't work out or why I made a blunder. So I've stopped analyzing those trades at the end of the day, because I usually just get mad or frustrated with myself when I look at it for a 3rd and 4th time. The stuff I usually wind up analzying a lot more are the winners and if I could've exited in a better spot. I think this goes back to working on letting the winners run. I feel like Im stuck in the middle of not being a good enough trader to recognize when to exit if I have a winner and price turns against me vs sitting it out and letting the winner run. Or maybe a better way to put it is not having the emotional fortitude to say I have to exit if price hits this s/r resistance level. Anyway, I worked on this a bit on Friday and I made some better decisions in terms of exiting vs letting the winners run...and so far its carried over today. So we will see how the rest of the day and week goes.
Man its amazing how fast good days turn into bad and visa versa. Just when I had written about how I haven't had a "I would not have done much differently" day...that day came today. For my ability level, I don't think I would've done much differently today...there I said it I didn't go into the day thinking all that much different than I did on Friday...Just work on exiting at s/r levels if price goes against me and work on good trades...eliminate the bad ones. I had the 2 best trades in row in terms of how they were managed since I started this day trading thing. here was the first one: 7:53- Short 81.41 Stop 81.51 Target 81.08 needs to bust thru the 81.17 level with momentum. 7:58- Stop to B/E 8:01- Stop to 81.17 8:02- Stop to 81.08, now need to get thru 80.80 to get to 80.65 8:05- Stop to 80.85 8:06- Stopped out at 80.85 +56 ticks I think it gave me a little more mental ease knowing I had my stop moved to my original target...I may have to visit this more often as it seems like mentally Im more content with at least getting my original target and then anything after that is gravy. Then the next trade, I was really proud of myself for getting out when the breakout failed...I usually hang on and hope just to watch the thing go to my stop but instead I was a bit more proactive. This is another reason why the CL is good for my style of trading. It seems most of the time price either breaks fast or it doesnt...theres not much wiggling. So Im practicing getting in the mindset of getting out when price doesn't move on the breaks. 9:27-short LOD at 80.75 stop 80.88 target 80.30 need to get thru 80.65 then 80.52 then 80.41 9:29- Covered at B/E +0 ticks when breakout failed. Here are the stats on the day: Total Trades: 5 Winners: 3 Losers: 0 B/E: 2 Avg. Win (ticks): 41.67 Avg. Loss (ticks): 0 Total Ticks: 125 Total Win Rate: 60% I went thru and reviewed Thursday and Friday this morning. 2 really bad trades at then end turned Friday into a really poor day....I was up almost 75 ticks only to throw almost 30 ticks away on those 2 bad trades. And thursday, I had no winners, just a bunch of small losers and B/Es. The B/E's were mostly due to hanging on to long and not exiting at appropriate s/r levels when price turned. Here were the stats from Friday: Total Trades: 9 Winners: 4 Losers: 5 B/E: 0 Avg. Win (ticks): 18.5 Avg. Loss (ticks): 11.6 Total Ticks: 16 Total Win Rate: 44.4% And for last week: Total Trades: 34 Winners: 10 Losers: 13 B/E: 12 Avg. Win (ticks): 21.16 Avg. Loss (ticks): 10.92 Total Ticks: 66 Total Win Rate: 41.32% Again the common theme of bad trades and not managing those B/E trades is what are hurting the stats. But as shown last week, they really also hurt my psyche...Im also realizing that I need to be a little more patient with myself. I am learning as I go and figuring stuff out but Im the type of person that tends to be really hard on himself and strive for perfection. But maybe worse, want the problems fixed right away... and Im learning with trading, the problems dont get solved just because you do it wrong once or twice or maybe even 20 times But on a positive note, there is tons of room for improvement, I haven't had a losing week yet...and I need to remind myself I've only been at this day trading thing for a couple months...I think Im progressing fine for only being at it a short while...just need to keep reminding myself of that on the bad days or string of bad days. Anyway, really really happy I finally put in a good day. Hopefully I can keep the positive ball rolling into tomorrow.
A really mediocre trading day for me. I was in a bit of a haze all morning...I haven't been getting that much sleep the past couple nights b/c the little woofer keeps trying to jump into bed at night...and he did it a lot last night. Didn't sleep well at all...I wasn't up until 7am and even then waking up was a chore and I gave myself 30 mins before I was in front of the computer b/c I was in somewhat a zombie state. Stupid dog I think he is getting cold...its freezing here in san diego...a chilly 55 he's sensitive..doesn't like the cold, doesnt like the heat. Like most San Diegans Anyway, so trading when so-so...my timing was a bit off all day and I was having trouble focusing, most likely due to being tired. My trades were pretty good, I was on the right side of the trade all day, but either my entry was a bit off/stop was a bit off/ target was a bit off/etc. I really only had 1 bad trade where I tried to catch the top around 10am...really risky trade that I definitely should not have taken...even went as far to write down I shouldn't have taken it I think Im going to replay today after a nap or maybe tomorrow. I think today was a really good day for learning...there were a lot of micro breakouts where price would go 20-25 points but the retrace and restest the local s/r. Good day for plays off s/r...i tried and but didn't do all that great. I had 1 good management of a trade going long at the break: 9:28- Long 81.51 Stop 81.39 Target 81.82 then 82.00 then 82.10 ...need to get thru pp at 81.76 9:29- Stop to B/E 9:33- Sold at 81.62...+11 ticks failed to break above 81.73 right around pp area. I think this trade was managed pretty well. I would've gotten a B/E had I not exited when I did so I was happy with that. But there were 3 or 4 other trades like this today, where either I didn't exit so I got a B/E or I got stopped out. I was also working on managing my stops more based on PA rather than just a B/E. It really helped to keep my losses small. My best trade tick wise came midday when that channel formed: 8:48- Long 80.82 Stop 80.74 Target 81.00 then 81.10..got a 80.80 fill 8:49- Stop to 80.79 8:51- Stop to B/E 8:57- Stop to 81.00 8:59- Stop to 81.10 9:00- Stopped out at 81.10 +30 ticks Then I missed the reenter trade because I was just not on top of my game...There was a break of resistance at 81.12 so I thought it would come back down for a retest of support around 80.98-81.00, so that would be a good long entry...but missed the boat....then missed the next boat on the breakout above 81.17...Two "hello dummy?" moments in a row But, a good learning day that I need to go through again. All in all not bad for trading poorly and not seeing the action that clearly. Very happy to walk away in positive territory considering I made some mistakes and missed a couple of really good trades. Total Trades: 10 Winners: 3 Losers: 5 B/E: 2 Avg. Win (ticks): 19.33 Avg. Loss (ticks): 7.4 Total Ticks: 21 Total Win Rate: 30%
So we are midday on this very nice trending day...Im having an ok day...just being really conservative for whatever reason. Maybe because its an inventory day. Anyway, Im realizing a major hole in my trading. I don't really have a strategy if I miss an entry off S/R. The pullbacks have been relatively shallow today and I've missed long entries on the pullbacks 2-3 times by anywhere from 2-10 ticks based on where the local support lays. So it continues upward without me, but I don't really want to enter in no mans land...and I don't really want to enter on a break above the HOD since the move is so extended and chances are we will get another little pullback after 10-20 ticks on the break. Im going to have to start somewhere...so Im starting basic by going long 1 tick above the close of the reversal bar on the 5m chart...since Im in SIM, give this a try and start some backtesting...then maybe move on to something else or evolve this a bit. Im not a big candlestick guy, so Im not a huge fan of buying/selling on closes/opens/whatever of bars so we'll have to see how this goes. The other thing that I was thinking about today was just plays off DOM. Today the pullbacks have been pretty easy to read for the most part, Im just misidentifying the s/r on the chart. But, its pretty easy to see on DOM where price stalls out...so maybe I will work on that as well....ahh the learning process.
Wound up being a pretty good day. I made a mistake around 10:30 that caused me to have a losing trade. I entered at 83.46 instead of waiting for the support at 83.42...I think this was due to missing trades earlier in the day by a couple ticks and I just wanted to get in the market b/c I felt like I was missing out. Good lesson learned...can't do that. If I entered at the proper area of 83.42 I would've survived the stop, but with the entry at .46 I got stopped out. Sometimes it only takes a couple of ticks...so instead of having a small winner or a B/E I wound up with a loss. So that was the major lesson for today...dont sacrafice my entries to just "get in"...this goes back to what I posted about earlier and finding a strategy to find an appropriate entry if I miss read s/r and I still think the trade is still valid. Anyway, I think I was over conservative today. I didn't catch all that I could've on the first part of the big move up after inventories came out. I was still able to get a 50+ tick trade so I can't complain too much..but Im always looking to do things better. Im not kicking myself b/c due to inexperience I think it is still better to be conservative on inventory days. I also did a good job of exiting when price went in my direction but then reversed on a resistance level...got 6 ticks of positive when I would've gotten a b/e...and price continued against me even after that...so it could've been a full stop out. It makes me feel like Im making progress when I manage these type of trades well and I think I've done a pretty good job of that the past 2-3 days. Im a bit bummed its short week since I've got some positive momentum going. Oh well, will work on keeping it positive next week. I believe Friday is a half day...I doubt I will be trading since its turkey day fun time. Funny how that works...good weeks can't be long enough and short weeks can't end soon enough Total Trades: 5 Winners: 3 Losers: 1 B/E: 1 Avg. Win (ticks): 28 Avg. Loss (ticks): -14 Total Ticks: 70 Total Win Rate: 60%
Ugggg...what a blah day. I think I was trying to be to cute and fancy with my stops and it really bit me today. I was working on the whole dynamic stop vs. be vs leaving it in place...I was just too quick to move a stop to the next closest s/r level and that cause a couple stop outs that turned into winners...I try to give 15 ticks before I move my stop when Im with the trend and around 10 if Im against the trend, but today only gave like 10 and 8 and it really hurt me. I think I may be focusing too much on keeping my losses small. Anyway, need to erase today and go back to just letting things flow like I did last week. I did have some trouble focusing today, maybe the post Turkey day weekend hangover. I also got into a really good fade trade around 7:10 and I would've caught a really nice move to the long side...however, I moved my stop prematurely and got stopped out for a B/E...after that I just felt a bit off and my trading really wasn't that great the rest of the day. Im not sure if I was bent out of shape from blowing that trade or just not totally focused or what. Just really didn't feel all that into trading today. Anyway, here are the ugly stats: Total Trades: 9 Winners: 1 Losers: 6 B/E: 2 Avg. Win (ticks): 29 Avg. Loss (ticks): -9.33 Total Ticks: -27 Total Win Rate: 11.11%
Today was an extremely gratifying day. I thought for sure I was going to be in the red or at best around B/E. I kept getting caught up in the chop all day...my entry would be ok and then it move a bit, then I get stopped out...seemed like that happened 5 times in a row. Well actually it was 5 out of 6 ... but I started off the day with 3 losers (I hate starting the day out that way). Some of it had to do with my stops again. I think I didn't recongize today as a chop day soon enough so I was slow to move my stops (vs yesterday too fast). This is a hard thing that may just take some time since its a bit tough to backtest moving stops since Im doing it based on discretion more than anything. Anyway, around 9:30 when I had 2 more losers in a row, and momentum just died, I decided to just take a break and reevaluate myself and the day. I wasn't that bent out of shape emotionally, but I was thinking its kinda a bummer starting out the week with 2 losing days in a row after doing so well last week. i decided I would get back in or at least look for set-ups in the last 30-45 mins. since I was still emotionally in tact and not terribly frustrated. I've been reading around ET a bunch lately and learning about other peoples struggles when they first start out, whether it be emotional, systemic, whatever....something that I keep coming back to is what NoDoji has posted numerous times about number of losers in a row and winrate....and over time those losers will balance each other out to normalize to your winrate. But as she says, do you keep trading in that given day knowing your stats will work out in the end? I think for me, its more of an emotional tie and how my trading is going that specific day. Today, for example, I got caught in a lot of chop, there wasn't much of a daily trend nor an interday trend(till the end that is). I think normally I would call it quits, but I was feeling ok about myself and the fact that trading hadn't been great, but hadn't been terrible either. i was just getting caught in chop and need to recongnize that better. I don't seem to get bent out of shape when it is somehow a good learning day. So I finished out the day and wound up with 2 nice winners at the end of the day to finish in the green (or is it black? ). When I went back at the end of the day to do my stats, I couldn't believe it. It was a very gratifying feeling to know I wound up in the green by just sticking to what I know, not overanalyzing, not trying to win back my losses, just keep doing the same thing I've been doing and taking 1 trade at a time and forgetting about the last trade (sorry for all the cliches). I really believe that if I can keep this mentality day in and day out then I will continue to see progress. Here are the stats: Winrate sucks but oh well...great learning day, great confidence day. Total Trades: 9 Winners: 3 Losers: 6 B/E: 0 Avg. Win (ticks): 29.33 Avg. Loss (ticks): 11.16 Total Ticks: 21 Total Win Rate 33.33%
The chop was awful most of today for those using a 5-min chart. But win rate means nothing if you let the winners run. I had 7 b/e trades today, 1 loss, and 3 winners. A 27% win rate and a fine profitable day.