Ya i've use the On Demand feature pretty regularly. The major issue I have is Im not attached emotionally to losing trades on the SIM. So if I do something and it doesn't work out...oh well. But in real life, obviously its not like that. At this point, I don't think that matters...as you say, my set-ups should be more automatic and Im really doubting everything right now. So if I can reaffirm my trading via SIM hopefully I can carry it back over to real trading.
Decent setup, maybe a bit late on the entry considering price was tight and indecisive at that point. Try for earlier entries in ranges or slowly trending channels, because you never know how long it will continue to drift back and forth, or whether it's a flag ready to break out the opposite direction. So your 8:15am (PST) bar closes (shooting star), it's a pure short signal, short immediately @ 69.25 or so, rather than wait, because maybe price is only going to the lower end of the channel @ 67.00. This allows you to exit for a scratch if there's no follow-through. I said to my trading roomies when price was around 1168.00, "That LOD looks like a magnet here, I think we're gonna test it." And not one of us took the trade. I think maybe we felt we had more time to think about it and we stopped watching the chart for a while, then before you know it, it was in freefall and we were whining about missing it. When you miss a move because you hesitated to put on the trade in a timely manner, you have several choices: You can jump in and hope the momentum carries you somewhere profitable before it reverses; you can sit on your hands and wait patiently for a new entry in the same direction; you can take a counter-trend position when the move climaxes and price stalls off the new high or low; or you can revenge trade, trying to get back what you missed. You can't get back what you missed, so the last choice is a potentially destructive one because you're trading based on emotion instead of a technical setup. A good choice off a very strong move, especially a 3rd push or better) is often the counter-trend trade (buy when blood is in the streets, sell when greed is run amok). Don't do it if you're not experienced with it. Your stop should be no more than 4-6 ticks, and your target should be 3-5 times that. The other good choice is the next with-trend entry. Wait patiently for price to pull back and take a pullback entry off the pivot that breaks a bar level. After a really strong move, the pullback often has 2 legs, as the ES did late today, so patience is important. It can also be a real reversal as well, which is why the counter-trend option can be quite solid. Jumping into a move-in-progress can be profitable, but keep in mind that once a good piece of price movement has gone by, your profit target shrinks significantly, so take something off the table before it all disappears
So Im on the SIM today and for the foreseeable future...really tough day overall, trend was up but chopped around most of the day. It was really really hard to stay focused and not get completely bored since I was on the SIM. I was thinking about how to handle SIM trading today and I think Im going incentivize my SIM trading. That being, I can't go live until I meet my original goals of 3 avg pts/day per week for 4 weeks straight. Once I do that, I will allow myself to go back live. At this point, it feels like a lofty goal, but if I can do it in SIM, Im hoping my muscle memory will start to take over a bit and I can deal with the emotional side of things once I get to that bridge. The first couple of hours of trading were tough. The only trade I really wanted to take was around 8:30 to go long at 1174.75. The target was 1178, but there was a bunch of resistance coming up at 1176 then the pivot at 1177.00. With that kind of stuff coming up and the R:R not all that great I chose not to take the trade. Its pretty interesting to watch this run up, any major resistance, price just seems to stall for a bit then bust up to the next level of resistance. Trade 1: 12:40- Long 1174.75 stop 1174.00 Target 1179.00 12:46- Stop to B/E 12:53- Stopped out at B/E +0.00 pts Man, it is so much easier to the trigger on this type of trade in SIM I still think I needed to get a better fill at 1174.50 but even with a minor hesistaion I didnt get the proper fill. The other thing that I did on this trade was not exit at 1175.75. Once the 1177 level didnt hold, I really debated moving the stop to 1175.75. I chose not too since I had already moved the stop to B/E. I think in real life I would've wanted to get out. In hindsight, that would've been the right move but I need to work on recongizing these s/r levels and be more decisive and understand what is going on. Hopefully, the SIM trading will help the muscle memory with that. Trade 2: 12:55- Short 1173.75 Stop 1175.00 Target 1171.00 1:02- Stopped out at 1175.00 -1.25 pts Again, much easier to this in SIM. But I think it was the right idea, price broke below the channel, but man there was a lot of support in the market today. Same deal as the last trade, realistically I needed to fill at 1174.00, 74.25 would've been a stretch and unrealistic. I want to keep pulling these types of trades b/c I think that is where my strengths lay (at least in backtesting ). Total Trades: 2 Winners: 0 Losers: 1 B/E: 1 Total Points: 0 Avg. Win: $0 Avg. Loss: $67.50 Total Win Rate: % Total Profits: -67.50 I think today was a tough day overall for my type of trading, lots of chop, lots of slow grinds. So hopefully, if I can keep doing this and start the muscle/brain memory working properly again I can get back to live trading. Obviously, this isn't going to happen anytime soon, but Im ok with that. I should also note, I started SIM on the CL a couple days ago...so hopefully, that will alieviate some of my boredom and keep my more involved...but I need to be careful not to do much as well.
I believe sim trading is the best way to train the trader muscles, no doubt. I got a lot of negative feedback from people about how worthless sim trading is, but it was the best thing I ever did after reaching a pretty low point in my confidence back in 2009. I still use sim to test various strategies. The sad part is when you test out some stuff and end up with really nice sim profits. Today, I made almost $2000 in sim messing around with some unorthodox (for me) trading tactics. And in my live account I made $50 sticking with my tried and true methods
Just a heads up that I keep sharing everywhere I see someone SIM'ing with TOS. Their order fill algorithm used to absolute crap, buying the bid, selling the ask, such that you always gain on the spread. This was limit orders, I am not sure how market orders are filled. They may have updated the algorithm in the last year or two, but I would still be a bit cautious. YMMV, masterjaz
Ya thanks Im aware of the pitfalls with ToS so Im trying to keep it as real as possible...so Im watching limits/stops for selling on the offer buying on the bid, etc, etc
Man, today was so close to being a huge day for me...Still on the SIM...and will be until stated otherwise... Still came out with a nice positive day. I think I need to do a better job of recognizing days like today where we have these long waves with nice breakouts and figure out what I need to do to be in front of the computer most of the day. Days like this play into my strategies really well so I can't be messing around witht the dog or doing whatever. Trade 1: 7:09- Long 1182.75, Stop 1181.50 Target 1186.00 7:11- Move stop to B/E 7:43- Hit target sell at 1163.00! +3.25 pts I took this trade on the break above the latest high and it took off like a rocket...but then it came back down for a retest of the support level at 1183.50. Price bounced around for a bit...I was a bit unsure of my target as I went thru this trade...it looked like the 1185.50 level was going to hold as the resistance. What do you guys think about it? Obviously, it hit my target...but going into the trade would 1185.50 been the better choice for a target? I think if price had dropped below the 83.50 level I would have to exit...but then again, I had already moved my stop to B/E, this goes back to the whole idea of taking a bit of profit or just leaving the stop since its at B/E...it this case it worked out, I guess Im just going to need more stats to see how it works out. Trade 2: 8:13- Short 1183.25 Stop 1184.50 Target 1180.00 8:19- Stop to B/E 8:25- Hit Target! Buy to cover at 1180.00 +3.25 pts Once price broke below the channel, i thought there would be pretty good pressure to the downside. Trade worked out really well. For my type of breakouts, I don't think a trade can go much better. The next trade I didn't get a fill on...once the lunch time hours rolled around, I was looking for trades off s/r to the downside. I sent a limit order and it didnt fill in SIM and I really really doubt it would've filled in real life. Didn't chase but here is what I set it up as: sent the order around 9:20 short 1180.00 stop 1181.00 Target 1176.00...Trade would've worked out. Im wondering if I was too optomistic with the 1179.50 to get a fill at 1180.00 Then I had to take the dog for a walk b/c he just woke up from his midmorning nap...normally, I wouldn't think much of it since it was the middle of the day, but I should've recongized the long waves that had been forming up and figured out a way to keep myself in front of my computer. Will work on this going forward. But, b/c I missed this awesome breakout trade, when I got back, I forced my way into the market... Trade 3: 11:29- Short 1171.25 Stop 1172.75 Target 1167.50 11:54- Buy to cover at 1172.00 -0.75 pts Not a good trade...I even went against what I had written before i entered the trade...I wanted to see if the 1172.00 level could hold as support but I just jumped in anyway..We were already in the middle of reversal and some little HH/HL had already been put in off the LOD so it wasn't a good idea to go short anyway. I was really thinking about how to handle this after 10 mins of being in...I decided if price could make another push below 1171.00 I would stay in, when it reversed back to the 1171.25 level I looked to get out...even still a bit late, but at least I minimized the damage. After this trade, I decided I was done for the day. Im going to try and start forming good habits/decisions after making poor ones...meaning, doing something different than trading as we've discussed before. Today the decision was to walk away and not put myself in any bad trades b/c Im upset I missed a move or a text book trade for me. I know this is easier to do in SIM, but again, if I can start developing the habit now, hopefully, it will carry over to live trading. Total Trades: 3 Winners: 2 Losers: 1 B/E: 0 Total Points: 5.75 Avg. Win: $162.50 Avg. Loss: $37.50 Total Win Rate: 67% Total Profits: $287.50
Good stuff today man! Congrats on pulling the plug on the loser in the afternoon, that was ace. The other breakout trades were good as well. I don't have too much to add, maybe NoD can throw down some additional insight?
Why did you target 1180.00? I don't see a level there. Price double topped, then broke out of the range; great setup and great entry. Treat the double top as the first lower high for technical's sake. To confirm a potential reversal, price needs to break the 20 EMA and close below it. Once that's done target a break of the next support level in line (1178.75), which would be a lower low, now confirming the new down trend. Once price breaks that support level and confirms a new down trend, there's no reason to exit your trade until the new trend puts in a reversal signal (such as a higher low after which price breaks the previous high, or a close back above the 20 EMA). Neither of these things happens until much later in the day. Do you see how quickly your 1180.00 target becomes resistance? Once that happens, then move your stop to that target if you want to, but unless you are really good at taking profits and re-entering a trend on pullbacks all day, why not let a trending winner run as far as possible? I will add that I'm very bad at letting a trending winner run, but I'm really good at getting in and out on trend pullbacks, but I trade CL, which is notorious for suddenly retracing an entire trending move in 10 minutes