Tlow, Lots of earnings news and global currency "shake ups" lately. Trying to keep up with all that is nearly impossible. I think you do more "right" than "wrong." Keep your focus on what you're doing right and the wrongs will soon fade away. Be nice to yourself
So here is my write up from yesterday...Rough day. I think my inexperience really showed up today as I really felt I only had 1 major error during the day but still wound up down pretty big. Like I said earlier, definitely a learning day. Im not terribly torn up about it but it always sucks to be on the losing end. I started the day out really well...I didn't take 2 trades in the morning b/c I did my full thought process, wrote everything down, potential issues with the trade, etc. I wanted to go short around 6:35 and 7:00 but after doing some thought it was very possible neither of those trades would work out. So I was really happy with myself for going thru and being methodical with saved me from 2 losing trades. Trade 1: 7:47- Long 1175.25 Stop 1173.25 Target 1179.00 8:02- Stopped out at 1173.25 -2.00 pts As I said before, I was really surprised this trade didn't work out or even head in my direction. There were a couple of long tails at the 1175.25-.50 level, but I thought for sure, since bulls seemed to be controlling this market, this was a good area for a push back north. The trade didn't work out, stopped out. I was fine with the trade working out, however, it didn't take until my next failed trade to realize what was going on. Trade 2: 8:40- Long 1170.25 Stop 1168.50 Target 1175.00 8:45- Stopped out at 1168.50 -1.75 pts So my original thinking with this trade was to go long off the bottom of the channel that had formed if priced back up off the support level. Which is "kinda" did. But I think the mistake with this trade was 1. going against the overall trend, and 2. I didn't realize that the shorts probably have more control since the 1175.00 level breakout failed. Also, small mistake, but I think my stop should've been a bit tighter by 0.25-0.50 pts, either this trade was going to bounce back up or head back down, it didn't need much wiggle room. Again, as I said yesterday, I realized this only after this trade had failed. I've made a similar mistake like this before, not exactly the same but close. I think if I thought this trade thru a little more instead of being so focused on taking a trade off the support level, it would've kept me out of the trade. At this point in the day, Im somewhat doubting myself b/c I feel a bit over my head since Im not making correct calls and realizing why or how stuff happened a trade or two late. So I decided to take the rest of the day fairly conservative. Trade 3: 11:47- Short 1164.00 stop 1166.75 Target 1160.25 12:06- Move stop to 1165.25 12:11- Stopped out at 1165.25 -1.75 pts Man, not doing anything right today. I took this trade for a couple reasons...1.) were still in a grind down and the overal trend was pretty bearish 2.) We broke thru S1 pivot point. 3.) broke through longer term support at around 1165.00 and lastly 4.) the sloppy double bottom failed. All these reason seemed like a good trade and a good point to get in. The overall trend had been going for awhile but the strength in the downtrend still seemed there. I was kinda surprised it bounced up where it did at the 1162.50 level. I thought for sure if it was going to bounce it would've done it at 1163.00 or a bit higher. So overall kinda a weird learning day for me. There were a lot of long tails that broke thru a s/r point by like 1 tick which was a little nerve racking to see. I think that is what also gave me the feeling of being inexperienced with seeing all those areas where it may or may not push thru the s/r. Looking back on the day, I feel I can only fault myself for trade 2. The other trades, I feel I set-up well, thought out well, and they didn't work out. Any of you guys feel free to chime in about my trades or overall thoughts/ideas about the day b/c for me I felt a bit out of place. Total Trades: 3 Winners: 0 Losers: 3 B/E: 0 Total Points: 5.00 Avg. Win: $0 Avg. Loss: $83.33 Total Win Rate: 0% Total Profits: -$250.00 Also, I couldn't post the 512 tick chart b/c the data wont go back far enough so here is the 1600.
NoD, This is a bit how I felt on my second trade. However as I said, I was going against the overall trend. Other than that, what would you say about why it failed to bounce off the bottom of the channel at 1170ish? For me, it was the 4th attempt, volume had dried up a bit toward the bottom on the move...Or does none of this matter since its against the overall trend? Also, the move down to 1170 was pretty much a direct shot...does that play into account as well?
The 11:25am ET bar low was a touch to the lower channel line drawn parallel to the upper line that connects the 9:45 and 10:45 bar highs, using the market open pivot low. There weren't enough buyers to bid price even close to the top of the channel, and what don't go up, tends to come down. Now draw another parallel line below the lower line and place it an equal distance downside of the lower line and that's where buyers finally stepped in at 11:50am ET. Break of one line results in a measured move lower. Or maybe the neighbor's dog had barked 16 times in the previous 45 minutes
Trade 1 was a DT, a DT can form higher than the last high and a DB can form lower than the last low, it will not be perfect when trading real money or this would be easy. Or you could call it a failed BO. Either way, once it started going down, you want to be short. Trade 2, you did not bother to draw a trend line, or you could have seen no candles broke above it, so no indication to go long here. Now I can see what you are looking for which is a 2nd DB bottom at this level, but price already bounced off this level 3 times in the past. A 1st or 2nd strike has high probability, after that levels usually break. What I want you to think of is that these levels are brick walls. Every time price hits a level, bricks get broken and the wall cracks. Enough times being hit, the wall breaks. Also, you had no green candle on the higher time frame to indicate a bounce. Look at the 2nd hit where you show a tail. As noted, a level is not broken unless a candle closes below it, so tails do not count in breaking a level, just think of it as hard hit to the wall and brick falls offs. The person who made the wall, then picks up the brick and glues it back on, or call it a failed breakout to the bottom. So we see a green candle after this bounce has completely formed indicating a 2nd confirmation to go long. The good news is that these levels of S & R are wide enough that you could make profits after this candle. Trade 3: Actually, this trade could have made profit if you did 2 contracts and scaled out. After 1st contract is in profit, stop could have been set to BE. I would not call this a failed breakout, we did have candles fully closed below this level. Other than that analysis, I use a magic indicator that predicts the future, and may wait for it to give confirmation before taking a trade. I recently took some losses by not waiting for my indicator to confirm trend. Also, I have another indicator that dynamically calculates probably S & R based on math and not the price levels you see on your chart, but many times these levels are the same. Once trend has changed or price for example has bounced off a level, it should in theory trend to the next level. After price broke back above your last support level, and stopped you out, it should travel back to the previous level and it did. I am going to focus more on Forex trades, and may wake up early to trade them when they have more momentum than late afternoon starting next week.
I can predict the future by pulling numbers directly out my butt and if you think I'm just making that up, you can just ask Bighog because he KNOWS it works
tlow my 2c on the importance of 1169 level on the day See the 1012 hod, 1013 lod tests (strong tests not fairy taps) which makes it an important S/R level. ES tests the level again at 10am on the 14th, when it breaks an important level like this shorts are on, short every pullback to resistance you can see the pullbacks in this S/R zone holding, remember it is a zone. Next note the 13:57 and 15:39 ET tests, when price does such a double test (M pattern) and breaks above, it is usually a strong move and you need to take the breakout.
I think you mean 12:29ET low, see chart. Question for you D & others, On an Al Brooks video he shows a 5min bar which is a large expansion bar, he does a 100% extension of this bar and gets a target. An unusual measured move method, I thought, or are you more familiar with it? its at 3:00 mins into the vid <object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/31UBf_XCDPo?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/31UBf_XCDPo?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>