Woohoo! Year-end rally! Awright!...um..

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DeepFried, Nov 9, 2005.

Market Direction

  1. Five days of waffling, now we're rallying

    23 vote(s)
  2. Can't punch through resistance, sell!!!

    25 vote(s)
  1. Five days unch'd on the major indices.

    The main reason I've heard that we should have a year-end rally is that, um, it's the year-end and, y'know, this would be the time to, y'know, have the year-end rally were supposed to have.

    I'm not cheerleading for either a rally or a selloff but what would it take to push the market higher? There doesn't seem to be buying power to do it now.

    Is this just the consolidation after the rally off recent lows or are we about to lose 50%-60% of the gains since mid October?

    BTW, by all means, vote in the attached poll. :D
  2. I'm inclined to agree. I don't know if GM will actually file for bankruptcy but I'm more inclined to be bearish than bullish on the economy and the market.

    Of course, using my sentiment as a contrary indicator, that probably means you should load up on stocks. :p

    But a lot of negative factors haven't been resolved - higher rates and inflation (if only in energy prices) being the more predominant ones. And I'm doubting that the market can move higher simply on "hey, it's November! yeehaw!!"
  3. see you on Friday when we punch 10,700
  4. Hey, maybe we will trade up to and through 10,700 on Friday. What particular indicators make you think we will?
  5. Damrak


    Glad to see most participants in the poll (surprisingly) expect a rally.

    No need to be worried about my shorts then. :)
  6. Are you short because of technical or fundamental reasons?

    Anything you would like to share?
  7. CONR


    I just looked at the poll. 12 - 6 in favor of a rally. Bet the farm? If it was 1.2 mill. - 600,000 in favor I'd feel more comfortable with my shorts.
  8. Damrak


    Well, the reason I am short is that the market can't advance. So it seems.

    If I am right, this is the best price you can get. If I'm wrong I'll find out soon enough and will probably have enough opportunity to change my position.

    The reason we're not going up is the market is overbought. Overbought markets can still go higher, but with a chance of less than 50%.

    So I was surprised to see so many people opt for a rally the next few weeks.
  9. Damrak


    If you randomly picked 18 American voters and found out 12 of them had voted for Kerry and 6 for Bush, wouldn't you be surprised ?
    #10     Nov 9, 2005