Woodies CCI

Amen, brother.

I remember having an online converstaion with one of the "great cci traders" (according to woodie) a few years back. He said he wasn't going to a cci conference in LV because he couldn't afford a plane ticket! A great trader that can't afford a plane ticket???

Nobody in that room makes any consistent money. NOBODY.

 

Your logic is a little faulty.

You say "the market isn't static"..."You can back-test...".

All you have stated, which I agree with, is that testing short term trading systems is futile because the markets change over time.

Why do you think people like Larry Williams continuously come out with new "curve fitted" systems?

The point I was trying to make is that a good trader can take almost any entry system and not do too badly. The entry is the least important part of the trade.

I just took a ZLR and made $100.00 per contract on the ER. Why? Because after a strong move, we have a high percentage occurrence of at least a re-test.

Why did I only make $100.00? Because, I wasn't going to wait and see if we just re-tested or exceeded the previous high.

That is all discretionary and comes from experience. We are, also, up against R2 on the ES and R1 on the ER.

See chart for the visual.

BTW, I really don't care to defend or knock Woodie. Again, my point is that the entry is the least important part of the trade.

 

oops, here's the chart.

 

DonKee,

Nothing faulty about the logic at all.

First, I wasn't generalizing about short term trading at all. I was specifically talking about CCI trading as described by Woodie and taught on his site.

Next, take what you said and extend it to Woodie's system. We seem to agree that there is no consistent pattern of exits that will produce a positive expectancy over time.

You would like to make some sort of argument about the potential success of discretionary trading. I won't take that topic up now except to note that there are very few traders who read the tape and succeed at trading as a business and that teaching discretionary trading -- if it works at all -- is just about impossible.

More generally, people in his room are mislead by the partial reinforcement of the occasional winner -- much like your $100 example. However, over time the system has a negative expectancy no matter how you structure your exits.

To put it clearly, the patterns described on Woodie's site are not good entry signals over the long haul. You can't make sufficient money with them to justify the investment of time no matter what set of consistent exit criteria you use.

Sam

BTW... there is an article in Active Trader this month that tests pivot points and finds them wanting..

 

Here's a ZLR Buy with a 34/20 EMA

 

Here's a ZLR Sell with a 34/20 EMA

 

I'm not here to prove/disprove anything.

Just put the charts up on your screen and see how they work for yourself.

Best Regards,

Damn good trading in 2007!

JJ

 

It's a religious cult, try going in their and questioning the method... methinks they protest too much

 

Ya? How much $ have you made so far this year?

 

Nice post.

The CCI is just a tool. Nothing more, nothing less. Nobody spoon feeds the public/masses an "edge". So don't expect the CCI, in and of itself, to have an "Edge". Don't expect anything released to the public to have an "Edge".

Successful trading is not for the lazy. You have to do the work to find your own "Edge" by being "Creative".

The issue of whether the CCI "works",
as Woodie or anybody else teaches it, is completely and totally irrelevant.

The real question is, can you take something that doesn't work and make it work. Can you take a system, that's released to the public, with "No Edge" and "Make it have an Edge". That's all that matters.

And when you find your edge. Keep it to yourself.


Goinglite