CCI has been tested, and did not have any predictive effect. IKf you want a real-world proof, goto Freecharts.com --> commodities --> drill down to the nearest couple months for each, and look under the "performance" on lower lefthand side. Sum up across EACH commodity you will see CCIs actually tested. They do not really work. Unless of course, you would rather believe
It represent relationship of price and moving average. Just put it on non fixed time fractal charts (volume, range or tick) and observe it for a while. It ticks a long the line with price.
t-in, Give consideration to non price and non volume displays of a non stationary view of the markets. Redduke is presenting you with an idea that I believe you, but not most others, can grasp here. Applying an indicator to streaming information is always a possibility. It is also possible to display non stationary information in a manner that is independent of time. When time is not part of a function, then the issue of leading and lagging is taken off the table in several ways. Steaming information may be accummulated in many many ways. Mentally, break away from the trivial aspect (being a beginner stuck in a lagging concept world) of this thread for a moment. Do this by looking at point and figure (Achelis, pg 233). Both axis use price here, for example. Also consider the triad that Achelis introduces which includes Kagi, renko and three line break. All of these are from remote cultures compared to the European heritages which influences you so much. See pages 158, 258 and 275, respectively in Achelis) Try to let your mind open somewhat to entertain non time bound non stationary windows for the simply reason rhat you may break the hold that you mind now has on your ability to think. If you ease back to price representations that are not time bound in their display, you then get to understand that there are indicators that do not have lag and lead characterisitics. Once this avenue is opened to you, you get to reconsider, as red duke suggests and uses, non time oriented non stationary displays that move in parallel to price movement. All fine trading ATS's use non stationary windows and within thse there are two classes of indicators (time and non time dependent) which afford either parallel or leading indicators of price. None of this is conventional simply because it all is non inductive and happens to be counter intuitive. It is very difficult for a beginning trader to not get stuck where the posters in this rgead are largely. They are all time bound, predictors, risk management, and low money velocity traders who are largely sidelined during RTH's. Stepping up to the plate and allowing yourself to emerge from the "lagging indicators" mythical belief system is a necessity to begin to go toward intermediate levels of trading and money making velocities that are part of what the market offers. Long ago before much information was available, time was not an important consideration for making money. Literall speaking the tape just moved at the pace of the market's trading activity. Later the noise level of the market was the primary indicator of the market's pace. It was not until (and long after market "trading" became known) that information became a significant indicatory for making money. to day we read about the uniquenss of the age group up to about 28 years old. They are becoming known as the "dumb" generation. Multi tasking is their game and they have a very thin level of dissassociated functionality of mental activity. Hence red duke's mentioning of silverplaters and the handle silvermotion. Myths are attractive to these people since they are suface oriented and do not "prove in anything with "process" type experiences. It is incumbant an any trader who wishes to escape the the beginner orb of attraction to trading to step out inot the universe far enough to get to see the ont time dependent aspects of trading that have been buried in the hugeness of the financial industry universe. You have to get to the fineness of "what is going on" to where "the rubber meets the road". In ATS coding this shows up as a triade as you would expect. Everyone who does back testing incorporates this three legged insurance in their codes. As you read red duke this is exemplified to you. It is obviously missing in hypostomous and most of the other meanderings of thos who phish constantly. Obviously it is the forte of reverse engineering sucesses found in a lot of the annual ranking literature that we see. It is totally missing from collective 2 because these people following this income motive have not as yet stepped up to get beyond time boind indicators. I am introducing this to you simply because you seemed to be thinking but you also got sucked into the beginner myth program of ET as epitamized by most posters (red duke excepted) in this thread. Also read Connors Hayward to utilize another orbit in the universe that is non stationary and on time bound as a leading indicator of price (they are way past the parallel (red duke) and lagging (Price action reaction) orbits.) If any person doen't understand this suggestion, don't worry about it, you are simply trapped by the consequences of what you chose, in the past, as beliefs. This is just a wake up call for those people who still have some mental capacity to deal with how to make an effort to gain effectivieness and efficiency in trading.
You'll always be a loser relying on indicators Jack.. you want to find a holy grail because it appeals to childish traders but you will never become profitable until you embrace pure price action and become a natural trader
Oridinarily I do not bother to post to the likes of you. This is an exception. The indicators I was referring to are S/S, DOM, T&S and the OTR tic charts. They ALL lead price action. And they are not time based in any way. You may not know this. All of their signals are defined and the signals are used to carve money making on time based turns on a very fine level using a non stationary window. People like you and hypostomus go to faster and faster time based fractals. This fork in the road is simplistic as red duke pointed out. the other leg is to go to a non stationary window and use non time based signals from a non time based set of indicators. At some point a person leaves PA because it is limiting as to its income producing asymptote. See the P&L thread where PA readers volunteer their performance records. QED. PA is an induction based trading method and as such does not pass the science test. Read Taleb's lame arguments about your paradigm. You in your way have boxed yourself into a corner by you progression as stated by you in ET. Now you have the consequences of your decisions. See the traits that you have as a result also. There is a huge offset on where you are and I am on the performance continuum. You place yourself far to the left (in a lessor place) than you view what is even possible for others to be and for where I and others similar to me are located. David Boucher used a couple of ATS's to point this out in Futures. neither he nor anyone who documents performance cares why you are where you are in the cheap seats. No one documents your level of trading, if any. You prove that every day in the P&L thread and I have nothing to prove, ever. I have simply stated that the market is offering an opportunity and it is there to be taken by using a set of practices that are very common among a lot of successful traders who have been using then since the data became available. Thank God, you are never going to change. You will go down in hstory as introducing more people to the JH methods than mostly any other detractor in history.