Wondering what is wrong or not good enough?

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by zoli, Apr 17, 2012.

  1. zoli


    Dear Experienced Trader

    I am writing this because I am confused and I think I am missing some point here. Maybe you coule advise on what.

    This is my thirsf post and thread and I appologise that I can not give you anything for your time other than correspondance at this stage.

    I survived the beginning with all the B****t from the FX industry (robots, system, scam).
    I have been learning to trade for 3 years. I am slow. I traded so far FX and metals. I made only 3% last year and this year I am up 6%. I am not undercapitalized for trading (ca. 50000 USD). I have never blown up any account; I have never had a drawdown more than 15% even on the micro account at the beginning.

    I am an avid reader and I like to find logic. I studied Wyckoff, Jesse Livermore (love him), Darvas (love him too), VSA and the COT report and index, also Chicks work. I never had any mentor apart from these. I am aware of the potential effect of a good rising EPS, plus small amount of loans plus increasing Stockholder equity plus increasing return on equity. Everything seems to be reasonable to me, yet I am missing it.
    I find PA and Volume important. I find S/R levels important. I am aware of technical indicators but never found them of any significant use, they seem to be derivatives of the price to me. I can not really day trade, do not even want. I even have my charting program specifically on the EOD data not to get destructed. I always thought that the really successful speculators all avoided the smaller movements.

    All the above men did focus on the moves happened through several days, weeks, months. I thought it is the way. But do I need to leave a loose SL for that? It is impossible for me to trade without SL protection. Nevertheless, I think, lately, that in and out trading is no good for me. It is perfect for the brokers for sure. I just lost money when I was trying hard to get in. Also missed many moves when too I was cautious. The first “real” (small) profit I made was on EURUSD, when I had a trade for a month opened.

    The really good trades are very, very rare for me, it rather seems as there were really few opportunities – I know it is not always true. JL said that the success lies with the trader when she only acts at the “psychological time”, when the market simply has to go her way. I find those times extremely rare.

    I made a “super” trade when I saw a crazy volume on FXJ. The volume was crazy. I got the principle of Volume in mind. I did go on it right away. My size was a joke. So was the profit. 2 days later Japan came out with QE by the way.

    I just knew the CHF can not be pair with EUR yet (not without a big fight anyway) and I just watched as it went there and was afraid to long it.

    I saw how silver and gold reacted after a strongly bullish USD data. The next day bar was a really nice entry opportunity. I missed it in the sea of hesitation.

    I often forgot to take profit as I had in mind that the market should go more to make it worth. So the small losses (always small) and BE trades slowly eat up my profits. That is why I underperform so badly.

    So I am missing here something. I am sure I do miss it. What is it? I can not live without learning to trade as it would put me equal to a coach potato or a plant - something I am not. I wake up at 5:00 every day; work on charts before I go to work. Then I study the market after work and go to bed between 9 and 10. So I put in the time what I have. I will never ever give up, I dye first. If I figure the markets out in 10 years from now, that is very much good enough! After all, I purchased my MSc in engineering in 5 years…..

    I appreciate and am looking forward to your comments

    Kind Regards and all the best with your trades

  2. i'm in your exact same position (getting up at 5, reviewing market overnight action, reading bloomberg, etc. then going to work then coming home to review charts, read, etc). the most important thing you have is the passion b/c everything else flows from that.

    one of the biggest factors in my improvement as a trader was reviewing every aspect of every trade and seeing what i did right, what i did wrong and what specifically i could do in the future about this.

    another thing is to find the trading style and timeframe that's right for you. trading in the wrong timeframe can be a killer so find that out first - don't trade an instrument, timeframe or strategy just b/c someone else does.

    anyways off to work - feel free to pm.
  3. Start there.
  4. zoli


    Hi FrankSlaughtery,

    thank you for your input. Yet again it is 5:30 and I am already here working. It is true what you say. Actually, moves all the time get mised and big ones too. Does not matter.
    According to my records it is actually more profittable the less I trade. That is, only trade whenthere is an immidiate Ah-ha recognition os a formation which is very strong. When I analise myself into a trade that can turn out good but it is more often bad, some 50-50%. Those are the ones end up in BE or loss.

    I can not pm yet as I need to post more. I am thinking on opening a long swing/position trading thread where I can disuss my ideas with others. If that happens, u r welcome to share.

    Kind Regards

  5. zoli


    Hi there,

    very straight forward suggestion. My challange is, that veryx often when I took profit , I ended up taking it on the correction only to see that my initial position was indeed good, I just did not survive the market fluctations.

  6. the most important thing I learned in the market is:

    I am not the market, even I glue my eyes on my screen 24hours a day, I will never figure out how those moves are made, there are zillions of combinations of moves. so it is fruitless to ponder and think about those moves.

    so I decide to follow my instinct to be a true bulls or a true bears.
    I replace thinkg with act, I act. I act in my best interest.

    even I do not bother to check the charts to act. charts,quotes indicators, all just shit things, all make you think the chart/quote/indicators have logic. but in reality, no logic there.

    feel cheap, buy feel expensive sell, very natural
  7. zoli


    Hi 198,

    I congratulate you on your skill with the feel. I do not see this way, or at least, for me what is chep can become easily cheaper. I believe, that whether or not something is cheap has actually nothing to do with its past price. That just come as a false suggestion from looking at a chart. For this reason I have no reference to the real value of the thing. I could go out there, though, and apply analisys on stocks with the discount price model for example. That is a reference, but it is only usefull if you trade for over a year with your position and you do not mind 10-15% drawdown. I do not like that. Also, Buffet holds his stocks for ever.

    Anyway, back to you. So you feel for example, that cattle is cheap. What do you do? you go and buy a few contracts? 2 weaks later you could very easily be in 15000 USD minos on your position and that is not even weird market action.
    What do you do?


  8. Lornz


    If you read Livermore's own 1940 book, you will find the answer to your question.

    Ride your winners and cut your losers short. Only trade when there is a reason to. There may only be a few opportunities each year, so don't try to force it.

    The "sitting" Livermore referred to is not sitting tight in a position, but sitting on the fence. Only a small percentage of traders really understand the significance of that.
  9. Fool


    "If two people love each other, but they just can't seem to get it together, when do you get to that point of enough is enough?" (The Mexican)

    If your answer is "Never" you might have a chance. Quit your job, jump into the water, do not use stop-loss (are you willing to be "the
    craziest fuck"? Stop-Loss=Enough-Is--Enough), take any shit coming your way, learn to handle ups and downs. This is the only way to swim to the other side (figure the markets out).

    Do not argue with me about the stop-loss because I don't care about your opinion.
  10. Falling crazily in love with a trade? best way to endup bankrupt...
    #10     Apr 21, 2012