WMT is looking for flat SSS. If they are going to see flat SSS throughout december what makes you think there going to see SSS rise to the 2-4% range.
Set it low, then they beat, why do you think it ran from 43 to 52 ? They did the same thing back then as well.
Know why I think WMT is going down? Because the dollar is going down. You ever look in a Walmart? It's all made in China. Do they even sell anything Made in America there? So what happens when the dollar goes down... and keeps going down? Chinese goods get more expensive. Walmart isn't about to compete with Tiffany anytime soon. People who shop at Tiffany's and Neiman's do not buy their Christmas gifts at Walmart. So who shops at Walmart? Do they have other shopping options? Absolutely. Big Lots sells closeouts. BJ's and Costco sell imports from other countries besides China for comparable prices. Ross's and TJMax sells closeouts too, in name brands, for comparable prices. What's going to happen to Walmart when the RMB drives up against the dollar, and all their imported goods rise in price? Add that to the cost of transportation when gas goes thru the roof? It's no surprise that Walmart lost money for the first time in 10 years. It will be amazing that they don't keep losing money with the growing competition, increased cost of goods, increased cost of transportation and increased cost of labor about to hit them this coming year. Walmart MAY in fact go to 50. It's the big pump and dump, and of course potential short squeezes. As I said, I don't know WHEN Walmart will fall, but it's going to fall, and I'm not buying any. While I don't think Walmart will do the Kmart thing anytime soon... just keep Kmart and their $2/share before bankruptcy shareholder wipeout in the back of your mind. I'm not excited about retail, and it's got nothing to do with Christmas. It has to do with toys, stuffed animals and fishing lures. It has to do with the rising dollar. It has to do with what the dollar soon will not be able to buy. While I'm still convinced there's money to be made in the market, it's not going to happen at Walmart, because sooner or later, Walmart is going to have a terrible bottom line.
Ouch!!! that hurt. I am sticking with it though. I don't have a whole lot of money tied up in it and I have until February to either be right or totally screwed. How have you been doing lately? Gary
Hey, it might keep going up for a while, never know. If the market were 100% predictable, then no one would make any money and no one would lose any. I said it wasn't a great stock, not what the price of that stock would do. From a value perspective, it probably won't be, from a swing trader's perspective, it doesn't matter. But if the dollar keeps falling, and it's hard to say if it will, Walmart's costs are going to go up because their purchasing power will go down (dollars to RMB), which means their profits will go down OR their retail prices will go up. In the face of competition from closeout sellers, Walmart will have a tough time keeping that bottom line up. It may take a while for stock prices to catch up if that happens. Isn't that the entire point of the market is to do the unexpected? In either case, I don't own any Walmart. Further, it seems to me that every time a stock is going to crash, it goes up first, otherwise it wouldn't be a crash. That's why Microsoft, with all that profit, just sat there for years in the 20's as it made money hand over fist, it's not going to crash, why push the price up? Anyway, not to give you a hard time Volente, but after a full month of doing almost nothing at all (well, bouncing from Dec 1 high of 46.50 to a low of 44.75 in Dec), it does a 1 day gap up, closing only $1.30 up... are you saying it's going to keep going up? AMD did a $2 gap up and fell back down $4 since in a steady drop. So which could it be?