Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Nov 30, 2006.
headed to new lows by JAN-FEB
I dunno about the time frame, but I agree.
You guys are thinking like Americans. Walmart is all over the world and the dollar has devalued itself by 10%. This means that sales in other countries will translate to more dollars. Walmart is also diversifying and building banking locations in other countries. They also deal in currency.
There are two things that will happen from here.
It will either bounce up to $50 and turn around OR it will go downwards to $40 before the bounce.
If it goes to $40, then you go "all in" maximum leverage. In the last ten years, Walmart has never traded at such a low P/E. It has only flirted with that $42 line twice in the last 2 years.
If you think its going much lower from here, then you are sadly mistaken. I think there is a greater chance of it seeing $50 before it sees $40.
This is one that I know Cramer got wrong.
I'm with eagle, WMT will see $50 by the middle of Jan. FWIW, one my biggest options losses ever came from buying puts and betting on WMT to go down in nov.
I don't know how low it will go but I am currently short with Feb 45 puts. I don't look or read about the fundementals but looking at the weekly chart it is about to break out of a bearish flag. Once it breaks out I would love to see it go to about 43 and I'll be out of this trade.
Gary, I traded WMT from 1999 to 2005 both swing trading and day trading and options on it as well. Unless the option interest seriously changes the stock will gravitate back to fill that gap at 47.80 and then on to 50 min by mid Jan. Maybe this time will different, but from my years of trading it, the odds are highly against you for shorting or buying puts in the 4th quarter into jan. Good luck with your trade. I do know for a fact that the analyst at the big firms, were bearish back when it was at 43 a few months ago and they were telling retail customers to dump it then and next thing you know it ran 20%.
Thanks Vol, all I need is a quick hit on it. I am already on the plus side so I will just plan on not taking a big loss. I only have a few K on this trade anyway.
If they somehow get it back to 43, I just might fire up the ameritrade account and dabble in some calls.
When/if it makes it to 43 I will have some puts I'll gladly sell you
I can actually see it going to 42 but I am going to be happy with 43. I bought in when it was at 48.
some are saying 50.... Very tough to say. I would go with a new 52 week low before seeing 50.
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