THE BEST HIDDEN VALUE PLAY RIGHT NOW The best hidden value play right now is Western Union - WU. Right now, its running silent and deep. No one sees how it is slowly bubbling higher. I am very confident that this will be over 30 within months. Since its a new IPO, they dont have any of the options backdating scandals that you might find with an older organization. The first conference call was a smash hit out of the park. All of the analysts after the call, like Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs, have rated this a strong buy. Barons, Morningstar and a few others are constantly pumping it. The P/E is very reasonable at 19. The Russell 3000 index P/E is in the 15-16 for comparison's sake. However, you dont hear much about Western Union in the media. It doesnt have an exciting name and it doesnt involve tech. You have to ask yourself one question though. Will more foreigners try to come to America? Will they wire cash out to their family? This is a no brainer. If you have been anywhere in the world, you will notice that a lot of women approach you right when you get off the plane at the airport. Dont even try to walk down a street or in a mall, there will be hundreds of women mobbing you. They want to come here to America and then wire the cash back to their family. There are Western Union outfits all over the Philippines. Western Union is a great play. However, buying it over 30 is too late. Its cheap in the low 20s and it will keep bubbling slowly and silently higher. It probably wont make CNBC or the Cramer show until it touches 30. When it does, then that will be the time to sell. Here is a key statement from the most recent 10-Q: "Beginning in the second quarter 2006, Western Union's business was adversely impacted by the immigration debate and related activities in the United States. This controversy around the subject of immigration and the changes in the approach of various government entities to the regulation of businesses that employ or sell to immigrants has created fear and distrust among many Hispanic consumers in the United States. As a result, the frequency of money transfer transactions involving these consumers has decreased and competitors have lowered prices and foreign exchange spreads in certain markets. Collectively, these issues adversely affected our Mexico and United States domestic businesses through the third quarter of this year, and we expect these issues to continue to impact our businesses in the future. Certain actions taken by the State of Arizona with respect to money transfer service providers have added to the uncertainty of our consumers. For more discussion on this matter, refer to the consumer-to-consumer segment discussion below." Now that our legislative system will be in gridlock and the immigration debate is slowly fading into the woodwork, Western Union wont be at the current price per share for long. When I walk around New York City on a daily basis, I conclude that a lot of these people on the streets are probably not American citizens and just got here. I have no problem with that so long as they use Western Union and they will. In third world countries there is a convenience store on the corner. This place is broken down, dirty and ugly. There is a yellow sign on the corner of that store saying "Western Union". Even in Iraq with all the car bombs going off, that little yellow sign is still standing. If I want to send money to someone in Baghdad, the Falkland Islands, Thailand, Bosnia, Lebanon or any other random country, then the place to send it is Western Union. Its a highly trusted and recognized name. This is a business model I understand and a clear value play where the price is being dogged down by the immigration debate. As the debate fades into the woodword, I want you to go outside to one of those guys riding around the bikes in NYC delivering food. Ask them how they send their money home. They will point to the convenience store on the corner with the yellow sign, Western Union.
"I still believe at some point this will turn around" lol. i could say that about ANYTHING throw a dartboard at a list of stocks i can state with 100% confidence "at some point this will turn around" nice hedge face it. you made a bad call. this response makes it look silly though imo
The real question is what will happen to Marvell. Cramer has a lot of guys thinking that Marvell is going to come out with a spectacular earnings report like Cisco. He has plugged it on his Mad Money show and on his other CNBC segments. On his website, there is even a video of him pumping Marvell. People will now follow Cramer after they saw how well he did with CISCO and NYX. There were a few other that he did well on too like Riverbed and Divix. The thing about these other companies is that they were indeed good companies with few problems. Marvell on the other hand has some obvious problems that these other companies he pumped lack. I am bullish on Marvell and feel its a good pick. My hope is that its not going to get frantically bid up before the call and then management is going to roll out with some news that will throw it into a waterfall selloff. The resistance is right at 16.00 because thats where the 200 week moving average lies. The earnings, INTC acq charge, and stock options scandal are already priced in. However, the outlook and guidance is unknown. Cramer is stating that the outlook will be strong and the Cramerites will be bidding up the stock all the way to the call. A runup past 20 dollars makes me feel uncomfortable going into the earnings call. Im going to look at this issue carefully next week.
Are you out of your mind.Cramer making his friends pump up the stock. Are you insane.the volume was 11,912,600 which stands for wich stands for approximatly $1,119,784,400 traded, now please explain which out of his friends has at least 10% of those amounts to put solely in this stock. Listen please think before you speak. The reason the stock is up is because of possible acquisition that NYX would like to do solely with their shares. If I am correct they ant to acquire LME exchange in London. Not for nothing Eagle you make no sence. And do me a favor do not brimg Cramer on this thread b/c he is a fool and you watching his show doesn't say so much about you either.
Now if the acquisition doesnt go threw or if it is not going to be soon then NYX will go down. Or if TA will tell us it is time to go down.
Interesting journal but I think the US is in debt right now because of big government and over spending, along with the trade deficit ever increasingly widened. Who ever is the next president will be in deep, the US economy will be in for a recession. We'll wait and see how things evolve from here.
Normally, I would agree but I have seen twin deficits for at least the last 20 years and the markets seem to shrug it off. A day of reckoning will come . . . but when, who knows? For now as long as the Chinese buy our paper and we buy their products the party will continue, just as it did with the Japanese before.
Agreed, but what will happen when they stop? Or when they would think that Euro is better investment then USD.
There's no question that interest rates will shoot up when they stop (and that's only the beginning of major problems) but right now, with their trade and growth being tied to our economic well-being, they have an incentive to maintain their holdings in USD. Elsewhere in the world there is diversification out of USD into EUR (the Saudis, for example).
HAHAHAH I love this guy!!!!! I bet Eagle is one of those guys who has a 50m account and laughs his ass off posting here!