With The Perfect Job Report Could Bears Even Hope To Score?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Apr 2, 2010.

SPY Next Week

Poll closed Apr 9, 2010.
  1. Bullish

    19 vote(s)
  2. Flat

    8 vote(s)
  3. Bearish

    18 vote(s)
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    7 vote(s)
  1. i am thinking that whoever cooked up the job report has done a perfect job.

    1) report slightly beat expectations (if adjusted for lower census workers)
    2) Jan and Feb were revised higher, so there is evidence of sustainability of job growth
    3) there are always some negatives if one dig into the numbers i am sure (i am not an expert on job reports) but 2) compensates for any negatives

    so, to summarize 1,2 and 3) add up to a report which is while positive still does not give Fed any reasons to raise rates. The Perfect Job Report!

    what goes for the Shorts is an overextended market and "sell the news" phenomenon.

    if we put everything together than a likely outcome is a gap up followed by a muted sell-off on Monday.
  2. good news, market goes up
    bad news, market goes up
    catastrophic news, market goes up
    end of the world, market goes up
  3. Uncle Ben won’t let us be contrarian and sell short. The feds current mantra is spewing out money a billion an hour. Their slogan is now “Bubble Ben says – Do it again!” So I add to my longs.
  4. the sad truth

    the headlines sound pretty optimistic. getting the public excited over the weekend, then shorting the gap up is the game plan of the big money for Mon.

    Employers Added Most Jobs in Three Years in March
    ‎2 hours ago‎ - Wall Street Journal

    U.S. adds 162000 jobs in March, many from Census
    ‎5 hours ago‎ - Bizjournals.com

    U.S. Creates 162000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.7%
    ‎6 hours ago‎ - FOXBusiness

    Job Market Brightens as US Payrolls Surge in March
    ‎6 hours ago‎ - New York Times

    Payrolls rise 162000, best gain in three years
    6 hours ago‎ - MarketWatch

    my favorite headline:
    Jobless Recovery? That Didn't Last Long
    Wall Street Journal - Kathleen Madigan - ‎1 hour ago‎
  5. Thanks Shortie!
  6. i am looking at various rallies in the past trying to see where we may fit it. i want to find rallies that are of comparable duration and strength to the one we are in and see how far the rally may extend before ~4% correction. for the table i went back from 2010 eyeballing the charts. the table is not meant to be comprehensive and i only went to 2007 so far.

    based on the few samples so far, i conclude that we are in a very strong rally that maybe close to running its course (based on age of the rallly, %gain and consecutive +weeks for major ETFs). no guarantees of course, since one can always point to a stronger rally than we are in. but think about all those rallies that failed to be as strong as ours to appreciate the uniqueness of our current situation.

  7. Call GS and ask them why they sold several thousand large at the 1177's Thursday. :D
  8. they would not return my call, bastards...

    but if i had to speculate, they went short the moment they heard about the secret Fed meeting on Mon.
    #10     Apr 3, 2010