<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ppEJ8r7bQ2o" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> One day, dow will drop 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000 -- all the way down until we hit 30% down circuit breakers and close for the day. The Fed will add trillions but the game will finally be over.
I'm watching the Nikkei, Yen and the JGB. Japan has basically said they are "all in" with creating inflation by any means necessary. They have stated they will double the BOJ balance sheet in the next two years. Their demographics are a nightmare and will IMO be the canary in the coal mine so to speak. A test run if you will for what the Fed is trying to do.
Yes US junk bonds although there is no guarantee that junk will lead the market down. Frankly there is so much bond money chasing yields by going into junk bonds that they may continue to go up for some time. But junk bonds behave a lot more like stocks than most bonds. You can track them with numerous mutual funds or ETF's such as HYG or JNK.
A bubble is a bubble. If it looks like a duck etc. There is now universal exuberance: almost all skeptics have thrown the towel in, the ones that remain are laughing stocks, Bernanke is a genius, grannies want to buy into shares, fund manager sentiment now at all time highs, new world records for highest buildings and art prices repeatedly being set. It is absolutely insane. This against a background of real world economic collapse. Seriously guys, what ELSE do you want to hear? Where else could this POSSIBLY go? I don't know when - nobody does - but to be long the market now is not very clever. For those who say "I just trade the direction, and it's going up", well, four years in the same direction means pretty much everyone has REALISED it's going up. Think about that. Were you "trading the direction" back in 2009?
That's the reason why I only trade the direction for the day, I've realised trying to forecast for longer periods is a task for fortune tellers...
countless ridiculous threads on why why why market just goes up...has anyone ever considered just possibly the market was so oversold in 2008/2009? and the complaining, has it made you guys any money?