Are we at the point where the best indication of where markets are headed can be gleaned from observing the arc of heroin addicts? Clearly there are points in the process where they have not yet gone broke, their clothes are still reaonably clean and their groming, has not fallen apart completely. Then all that changes.
Central banks are historically the slowest and dumbest members of the herd. They have a near faultless record of buying gold at market tops and selling near bottoms. Same story here.
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That's a good point. These things almost always go on longer than one would expect. Timing is everything. It could too next week, next year or in 5 years we just don't know. I'm watching Japan closely and if junk bonds start to head south following commodities that would be a big warning sign