How Accurate Are Rapid COVID-19 Tests? Why Trump’s Rapid-Testing Plan Worries Scientists Experts were already divided on the right way to deploy new coronavirus tests. Then the White House barged ahead. October 9, 2020 https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...d-antigen-tests-have-accuracy-problem/616681/
Keep in mind that the the supply of rapid is limited and they only started being distributed by the Federal government in any scale in October. Many states have not received any rapid tests yet including North Carolina. NC is set to receive 3.1 million COVID-19 ‘rapid tests.’ Will you be able to take one? October 28, 2020 https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article246753306.html
Wyoming Guv Admits COVID Policy Has Failed, Sticks With It https://www.thedailybeast.com/wyomi...his-covid-19-policy-has-failed-sticks-with-it Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon has for months resisted calls for a mask mandate, saying it was up to the citizenry to make that choice for themselves. But on Friday, Gordon publicly admitted that policy was a failure. “We’ve relied on people to be responsible and they’re being irresponsible,” he said at a briefing. You might expect that at that point, Gordon would have lowered the boom and imposed a statewide mask requirement like the ones that have helped slow the spread of COVID-19 elsewhere. But he did not. Instead, much as he had done a week earlier, the 63-year-old Republican threatened to tighten restrictions if his constituents didn’t start exercising some of that personal responsibility soon. The state has set new COVID-19 records day after day, and hospitals are warning they are running out of space. Read it at Casper Star-Tribune
Yes... by not established proper contact tracing and testing in the early weeks of the breakout with clear federal standards for re-opening --- the U.S. blew it. 'We blew it': U.S. reaches 'explosive' COVID-19 spread as virus is nearly impossible to control, experts say https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/we-...ossible-to-control-experts-say-210948870.html With COVID-19 cases increasing in 46 states, 10 of which broke single-day records for new cases on Thursday, America has officially entered what experts refer to as the “exponential” phase of spread — a rapid multiplying of cases that can’t be contained through traditional measures. On Thursday alone, the U.S. saw 160,000 new cases of the virus, more than any day since the pandemic began. In California, the second state to surpass 1 million cases, thousands of people in cars lined up at Dodger Stadium on Thursday to get tested; in parts of Washington state, individuals waited four to five hours. The current spike in cases — which some states are calling a third wave — has brought more than 100,000 new cases a day since Nov. 4. But that’s not counting those that may be going undetected. “We have widespread, uncontrolled COVID-19 in many parts of the country,” says Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “And we know the cases reported are an underestimate of what is out there ... we’re missing many cases because people aren’t getting tested. So the true number is much higher than what we’re actually seeing.” Exponential spread means an ‘unbelievably high growth rate’ Adalja says that exponential spread means a virus is no longer increasing on a linear scale but is instead spiking at a rapid rate. Dr. Oguzhan Alagoz, an engineering professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who models the spread of infectious diseases, agrees, saying exponential spread refers to an “unbelievably high growth rate.” In this case, that means new COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country are doubling or tripling each week. Part of this, he says, is due to the fact that COVID-19 seems more contagious than other viruses. With influenza, for example, the R0 (basic reproductive number) — or the average number of people to whom someone spreads a virus — is one to two. With COVID-19, the R0 number has hovered around three. “So say if I infect three people, those three people are going to each infect another three people, and those three are going to infect another three,” Alagoz explains. “This is why it’s multiplying in such a short time.” Many Midwestern states are seeing exponential growth Looking closely at the numbers in the U.S., it’s not hard to find examples of exponential spread, both on the national level and among individual states. According to the COVID Tracking Project, the U.S. surpassed 5 million cases of COVID-19 on Aug. 9, but by Nov. 9 had nearly eclipsed 10 million. In Wisconsin — one of the hardest-hit states — the average number of new cases a day went from 2,800 in early October to nearly triple that this week. In Michigan, another Midwestern state recently affected by the pandemic, active hospitalizations went from 669 in early October to more than 2,000 this week, filling up intensive care units and leading Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to declare it a “dire” situation. In North Dakota, where a motorcycle rally of nearly 500,000 people in neighboring South Dakota is believed to have set off an outbreak, average daily cases have gone from 400 in early October to 1,800 a day this week. Adalja says spikes like this are dangerous. “When you see an outbreak, it may not necessarily begin with exponential spread, but once you start to get a critical number of cases, then the spread really just takes off in a way that’s really explosive,” he says. “It is a particularly worrisome type of spread because it becomes very hard to control when you’re in that type of a phase of growth.” Masks are useful, but in this case likely not enough Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, agrees that the U.S. has reached a new level in the pandemic. “The virus is spreading rampantly. I’ve heard someone refer to it as ‘volcanic’ and I think that’s accurate.” Schaffner says that COVID fatigue is likely playing a role, with individuals becoming more lax with social distancing and mask wearing. He reiterates what officials have been saying for months: that masks can reduce spread up to 80 percent, and that they can protect both the wearer and those around them. Adalja agrees with mask mandates — which have been instituted in more than 34 states — but stresses that there isn’t a “one-size-fits-all” approach to tackling the pandemic. “You have to look and see what’s causing cases in your given area — and it isn’t uniform, because in some places it’s not bars and restaurants, it’s household gatherings,” says Adalja. “So each jurisdiction needs to figure out what activities are leading to spread and focus on those.” This week, it seems many officials are doing just that. On Thursday, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced a stay-at-home order for the city, which requires residents to remain at home unless obtaining critical supplies like groceries or medicine. In New York, where schools are on the verge of shutting down, Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued an order calling for all restaurants, bars and gyms to close at 10 p.m. beginning on Friday. Similar curfews have been passed in other hot spots like El Paso, Texas, and Miami. The goal with these curfews is to allow businesses to stay open while limiting both the amount of time that individuals can be exposed and the late night hours in which alcohol may further cloud prevention efforts. Many local leaders, including those in Los Angeles and Milwaukee, have also urged residents to be extremely cautious with Thanksgiving plans and avoid gatherings of over 10 people. ‘You cannot control exponentiality. We blew it; we’re past that’ But while the restrictions and stay-at-home orders may help limit the damage, Dr. Gregory Poland, an infectious disease expert and head of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group, says it may be too little too late. “We are now exponential. You cannot control exponentiality. We blew it; we’re past that,” Poland tells Yahoo Life. “Now the only options are that something happens with the virus where it dies out, we lock down like many places in Europe are doing, or we find a vaccine that’s highly effective that virtually everybody takes. Those are our only options at this point.” Pfizer announced this week that its COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in phase III clinical trials, which is promising. Still, with approval likely weeks away and widespread availability not predicted until 2021, the situation in the U.S. — at this point — remains bleak. “I wish I could give you better news,” says Alagoz. “But until we have a vaccine that is available or, as a community, many people change their behavior, I am not expecting that it’s going to slow down.”
So you are a governor of a state that had the highest infection rate last week. Your hospital ICUs are overwhelmed and shipping patients to other states. Medical professionals are urging you to take action and at least require masks in public. What do you do -- nothing.
Most people in the city of Chicago have been wearing masks for months. Numerous restrictions have been in place for months. The case count continues to rise. Why? It is what it is.Herr Lighfoot is mandated a stay at home order effective Monday. People should be allowed to decide for themselves. I would imagine if dead bodies start piling up in the street people will put on a mask. Yes, we need to see just how bad this gets before mandating restrictions and shutdowns. IMO we need upwards of 100K dead per month to do that.
Why not mandate restrictions and lockdowns before it gets worse. We are at the highest rate of exponential case growth nationally recorded this year. We have 2000 people per day dead now -- Does it need to get to 3000 or 4000 before you think of taking action. The U.S. death toll from COVID is predicted now to be greater than the Spanish flu. Should this not serve as a "call to action" for public health across our nation.