Winner of the credit balloon

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dividend, Feb 12, 2008.

  1. The winner of what may have been the greatest credit balloon of all time is China.

    Top 3 richest of each year. Name withheld to focus on Net Worth ($) and age. Source: Forbes list.

    In 2005:
    Rank Billion$ Age
    ---- -------- ---
    #1 1.64 63 Oldest
    #2 1.43 46
    #3 1.27 34 Youngest

    In 2006:
    Rank Billion$ Age
    ---- -------- ---
    #1 2.3 37 Youngest
    #2 2.1 56
    #3 2.0 64 Oldest

    In 2007:
    Rank Billion$ Age
    ---- -------- ---
    #1 16.2 26 Youngest
    #2 7.3 57 Oldest
    #3 4.8 40

    In 2007 The net assets of the #1 rank ballooned from 2.3B to 16B. The age shriveled from 63 in 2005, to 37 in 2006, to 26 in 2007.

    Double PhD quant certified regression supercomputer models suggest in 2008 net asset shall balloon to 35 Billion and age will be 13.5 within a standard deviation of 2.
  2. This is what happens when you focus purely ont he numbers and dont read into the stories behind them.

    The "#1" richest person in china, a 26 year old woman, inherited her fortune when her father turned the company over to her. Not only that, but the underlying assets that make up that 16 billion are real estate assets, whose values are hyperinflated, simply because Forbes does not take into account the fact that you cannot own land in China, but only the buildings built on top of that land. And as everyone knows, buildings are a depreciating asset. Not surprisingly the secrecy behind Chinese companies and makes it hard to guess what the values of those companies are. But its safe to say that forbes overestimates those values significantly.
  3. :D :D :D
  4. My models give that a one in a billion year chance of happening.

    ETA: Here is one of my models. She says "one in a million".
  5. Actually I revise my earlier statement. They're not winners until they can liquidate and realize gains. Otherwise it's just paper.
  6. Now we'll see how many winners were able to convert paper to $