If Anyone cares... Curious out there, in particular the actual profitable traders what their Win Loss Matrix looks like. I've been studying mine much more in depth for 1 of my more profitable short term systems and it looks like this: During a Monthly period Losses 27% Wins 45% Flat* 28% I define Flat as a trade that goes in my direction to a degree, but then I move my stop to where I entered, and have a small $0 "Win" Does anyone else analyze their Monthly results like this and what do they look like? This system yields me about 7% Return per month with only 45% win ratio. Curious what your systems look like... IF anyone cares
I don't using Trailing stops. I use fixed stops, equatable to fix $ amount that is max risk per trade 1.8% of account roughly. Once I'm UP half max risk, OR half distance to winning target where I take the trade off, I then move my stop up to where I entered. This is a risk management function that results in a scratch if market moves back to where I entered. This also gives a trade, some room to oscillate enough away from my entrance to allow for a target to be hit, and gain to be taken. Your right, my scratches are high, but my returns are also massively consistent and some months the account is up north of 15%.
I move my stop to BE at about 80% of target and my scratch experience is about 8% of trades and my wins about 10 percentage points higher than yours. I would look at holding a little longer before you pull risk.
Speedo, I appreciate the advice, I'm going to have to analyze this closer. That will require a ton of time to test. I manually test everything.... It has it's pro's and con's. Wins might be higher, but losses could be higher too.
You could shift an equal number of those BE's into both W and L columns and given larger win size, you would net more ticks. I also do things manually but have a lot of historical trades.
Thanks for the feedback, it's great having someone take a look to see what potentially might make more sense.
I have designed all but one system to have high number of "BE+1 tick" cause I average down on all signals. I do weekly stats, losses under 5%, BE's 35-65%, some form of 2-8 ticks the difference, except for last system, I am a scalper, can't have many losses. I ave down at -1, -2, -3, -5, -9, -13 and yes my stops are larger than most and based on wave averages and where I am entering. And if you making $0, it is a loss as you forgot fees and your time make it a loss. Even if it is min wage, you need to have an hourly min to cover, so end of the year you can base this on it being a sensible business. How many of your trades go against you from the start? If doing breakouts, you can do a delay, wait for so many tick breakout then limit at so many ticks better, would reduce number of trades. Price will often do what I call "overlap", it will breakout and confirm possible pivot, then it will come back to the lowest high in so many bars thereby stopping out weak longs, that is where I often enter feeding the losses of those who lack patience or capital. This kind of entry on my systems shorten risk cause it did come back. By the 30 second segments, based on winning trades, how many segments on "mean" average did it hang around your entry price before hitting 75% of your targets? This will give you an absolute amount of time to stay in a trade that after so many minutes better to move stops to BE+1 then allow it to become a loss. I would concentrate on reducing the losses, less losses you have, more you can increase size with confidence. Also, say you been in a trade and have that time rule hits limit and you in the hole, you can move target to BE+1 tick, so someone else can pay your fees. Good luck.
Handle, Thank you for the feedback. I will have to analyze what you wrote as well. I have fairly wide stops, and your question of how many go against me from the start is difficult for me to answer. Often my entrance is not perfect, so I would say 75% go against me by 20% of my max risk per trade. Another point I would have to make is IF I loosen my risk management rules as speedo recommended on having LESS "BE+1's" I might have less of a smooth equity curve and returns maybe be more clunky. So the mental fight, might be more difficult...but more money in my account. All needs to be tested/tweeked.