Discussion in 'Trading' started by jbtrader23, Jul 24, 2002.
o.k.? there's my contribution to this board.
of course, a superior call such as this one goes without reaction by the people of this board, whom never give credit if it isn't one of the 10 regulars making it!
the fat lady hasn't sung yet Vinny.
I got some really snazzy DIA 84 calls I'd be happy to sell you Vinny! They will become available sometime in the next few days I'd guess
and it looks like she's singing "VINNY, you are righhhht, there will be no re-test. Thank you for contributing to this board with such a sharp call, you showed your grapefruits making a ballsy call like that"
The fay lady has SUNG!
HEE HEE HEE
That is funny, do you just love tempting fate?
The fat lady doesn't sing until the Dow breaks 9000, until then, she's just a fat lady.
the market has been stronger than I thought it would be, so the retest is going to take longer to happen than I thought also, but I still think it will happen.
I always think about fundamentals as well as technicals and there is a lot more bad news in the pipeline. Lucky for me I have had puts on QLGC for a while and it looks like it might finally crack. The nasdaq is still toast , and I don't think the dow and the s&p can just leave it behind for very long.
calling a market on a board is cheap.
the paradox is this : having a bias in actual trading is very expensive.
forget about calling before it happens.
trading with success (well afa trendlike methods) is about calling when it happens, not before.
think about it : you are more right in this case than not !
so this is what I see, you can all see it :
the market went down, had a V and now is going up. The current direction is UP until it turns (Aug 9). So I assume it will continue until proven the contrary.
that's the current trend. At a longer timeframe (well most here don't care anyway although constantly calling a bottom) a V does not stop the down trend. Not even a zigzag with new highs above where we are now.
If you look at the bigger picture, you must look at the bigger picture and not be influenced by local noise and normal retracements on the down trend.
it's hard not to mix up time frames, but if you do, you are toast.
I liked the comment in another thread : just use a moving average (a 5 period) and you will get the current trend, simply by looking at the slope. There is a little lag but not enough to be a problem.
the fact is it's a very easy way to look at what IS (actually very recently was hehe) as opposed to what you WISH.
MA is not the best trend indicator but at least it's a good reminder. Try to follow the river, not predict when it will turn before it does. Otherwise you just hit the rocks.
I'll buy the Dow @ 7550 (Major Support).
I'll short the Dow @ 9250 (Major Resistance).
that's another to look at it.
very valid too.
why not combine both styles (S/R and Trend) ? do it if you can it will improve your results. It sure did mine.
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