Will we ever see $70 oil again...?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by contango, Jun 16, 2006.

  1. contango



    OK, a bit of a joke post as the price is currently hovering around $69.80...

    However, we are drowning in oil. I work with two large oil companies and the traders I've spoken to there are generally bearish (after a few beers)... We're drowning in oil, ethanol is going to get cheaper, coal-to-synfuel is coming on line in a big way. Crack spread is going to get larger as crude refining problems grow. Demand is still naturally high but slipping i.e. switching to natgas and alternative fuels. Summer driving season rumours are almost over i.e. buy rumour, sell the fact. SPR is near record highs. Natgas could start being dumped if supply can't be slowed down.... What, other than geopolitics, is driving oil prices up?

    Have a good w/end everyone....
  2. Global liquidity (which is also on the decline).
  3. lighter crude will always drive the WTI posted price....there are heavier grades of crude that have a tough time finding a buyer..........

    for me, I'm short oil........until a hurricane starts to form

    remember also that Osama is still out there playing with matches
  4. contango


    The new US refineries that are currently planned are clean, efficient and can better crack the heavier and more sulphurous grades. Plus we're also looking at the Arizona desert and old military bases instead of the Gulf to site them. Also, don't you think Halliburton would like to build some refineries in Iraq....? :) I mean, why ship dirty crude when you can ship clean product? Hmmm.... makes sense to me... Also, as the Brent refineries run down they can be used instead to refine Saudi or Dubai on its way to the US....

    Supply wise, Angola and Nigeria are slowly starting to get their act together. Angola is booming and the quality is good.

    I thought it was only journalists and anal-cysts who worried about Osama...? Also, Iran is old news now and unless something seriously hits the fan there I can't see Iran providing any more upside potential in the near future.