Lest we forget, we just had eight years of "peace and prosperity". Eight years of seeing no evil, hearing no evil, of making love not war in the Oval Office... Never mind Iraq, North Korea, Al Qaeda, <i>stupid</i>... It is the economy, <i>stupid</i>! Remember? How do you like your "peace dividend", <i>stupid</i>? Do you blame the bear market on a war with Iraq? Do you secretly hope that if there were no war your MF's might one day regain their luster? Think again, <i>stupid</i>. We are in a bear market because America's status as a safe haven for investments, foreign <i>as well as</i> domestic, has been seriously undermined by 9/11. As we speak, money is leaving U.S. shores in droves, the dollar is plunging, and our standard of living is on the decline. The only way to restore our investment rating and reverse capital outflows is to fight and win a global war against terrorism. A war with Iraq may cause a lot of pain near term, but without one the stock market might never come back. In the long run, the war is bullish.
Don't you know that after breaking the economy it is the classic economical mean to relaunch the economic machine ? It is in all college history's book that activity picks up with war. That's why perhaps so many people if they do not really want war do not protest. In fact protesting after is too late and even when war is justified like war against nazis protestors are just cowards. But when this war is a disguisment of mutual interests they want to hide like Bush and Saddam having made business together (10 million $ for each on a petroleum contract for example) through BCCI that's why Bush made many difficulties when Congressman ask for enquiry by FBI. In fact the Gulf war coïncidently burst when the scandal of BCCI has to burst in Arabia. But it was erased by the conflict and burst only many years after and not in Arabia but in United States. The ex-President of Europe and first promoter of Euro has also been corrupted by BCCI. After leaving because of financial scandals this guy is found today doing business with two arabian associates researched internationally for their connection with finance and terrorism. Before he was president, he was prime minister of Luxembourg and he is the man who permits BCCI to continue his actibvity in Luxembourg after FBI ordered the closing of BCCI ! To show the power of BCCI, BCCI was the first tax payer in Luxembourg !
I believe there is, unfortunately, alot of hot air in the markets. The bubble of the '90s was so big that even now we're not down to a 'normal' P/E ratio on the overall markets. Back in 1991, the markets had a much lower P/E and had plenty of room to run. It's different now. I think the war will be bearish. Regardless of the market, we cannot afford to let terrorists rule the world through fear. If the French and Co. are afraid to confront Iraq now, are they going to get a shot of courage once Iraq has nuclear weapons!!! Something tells me not. We are going through a period of time when there is alot of mess that needs to be cleaned up: Stifling taxes, corporate fraud, and terrorism. These problems won't go away if they are ignored, but fighting them isn't going to be easy. Cheers, kp