Will Trump cause a bear market (if he wins) ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TrAndy2022, Oct 31, 2024.

Will Trump cause a bear market (if he wins) with more than -25% drawdown in the SP500 ?

Poll closed Nov 7, 2024.
  1. Yes

    12 vote(s)
    41.4%
  2. No

    17 vote(s)
    58.6%
  1. BMK

    BMK

    If Trump wins, he will destroy this country. In two years it will no longer be a functioning democracy.

    If Trump wins, you should get out ASAP. You and your money will be safer in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, or Iran. And don't forget Benin. They have some of the best crypto investment opportunities anywhere on the planet today.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/09/09/class-notes





    This post is satire.
     
    #41     Oct 31, 2024
    MarkBrown likes this.
  2. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    Observing the last five elections, the US stock market has tended to rally after the results were out. Increased volatility was observed in the period leading up to the elections. The US stock market has performed well over the long term under both Democratic and Republican leadership. However, five-year data revealed that market returns have favoured the Democrats...

    Historical data shows markets do not pick political favourites. The Nasdaq performs well in election years, particularly when policy direction is clear after an election.

    Historically, markets have performed well post-election under Democratic presidents, as seen with Biden in 2020 and Obama in 2012. These rallies are often fueled by expectations of economic recovery and stimulus measures, though broader economic factors (e.g., recovery from recessions) are key contributors.

    “The market has also reacted positively to Republican victories. For example, Trump’s 2016 victory led to a sharp rally, with markets anticipating corporate-friendly policies, while Bush’s re-election in 2004 provided stability during the Iraq War,” said Sujit Modi, CIO, Share.Market.

    I have two different brokers who have increased the margin requirements. I will assume it will stay as such going into the November 5th election because the markets are expecting unusually high volatility in such a polarized election environment.

    wrbtrader
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2024
    #42     Oct 31, 2024
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    He may destroy democracy, but I can guarantee you the market will sail north over his presidency.

    The markets are above politics. Always have been, in the long run.
     
    #43     Oct 31, 2024
    birdman, ElCubano and MarkBrown like this.
  4. BMK

    BMK

    But everyone knows that Republican policies are better for business, and Democrats are bad for business because they want to raise taxes and enact legislation that will make businesses less profitable, you know, like they won't be able to use your data without permission and stuff like that so they will make less money, and the stock market will go down. Republicans are better for the stock market.

    What's that you say? There are facts, evidence, and data that show that "market returns have favoured the Democrats?"

    Republicans don't use facts, evidence or data.

    A Republican president can make the stock market go up just by thinking about it.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-...classify-documents-even-by-thinking-about-it/
     
    #44     Oct 31, 2024
  5. ktm

    ktm

    It's incredible the amount of revisionist history that gets posted here. Perhaps the news in Canada is misted with some of that aerosolized kool aid they are so fond of. When the pandemic started, no one knew exactly what we were getting into for the first few months. Trump relied on his advisors and trusted the scientists and they started with "15 days to stop the spread" and of course it went downhill from there with them. Of course later that year we learned what Fauci truly represented, which was far from actual science.

    For someone to blame Trump for the ensuing economic downturn just leaves the rest of their statements as void of any logic or reason.

    In 2016 famed Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman predicted that the market would crash to horrible levels and never recover if Trump were elected. Judging by his rare appearances on TV looking like a deranged homeless person, I'd say he took his own advice and sold everything at that point - which is the only thing I could respect from him. It's also proof that idiots get Nobels all the time now.

    If Trump gets elected, his tax cuts will be extended. If Harris gets elected your taxes will rise not only from Trump's 2017 tax cut expiring in 2025, but she has promised to raise them much more. That outcome alone will cause all equities to be immediately revalued once the dust settles. If a company must pay significantly higher taxes, their bottom line is affected and they may be suddenly overvalued in terms of share price.

    At the end of the day you won't know who's running the country with Harris. She has proven through many interviews that she lacks the intellectual capacity to understand the issues in front of her, much less make an informed decision that represents the best interests of the country. It's shocking that people are voting for this, but obvious that they simply don't know any better and/or just hate the bad orange man. Many of them voted against Trump in 2020 and look where it got us. Biden's term will look like the golden years a few years from now if she somehow gets in office.
     
    #45     Nov 1, 2024
    tomas262, MarkBrown and Specterx like this.
  6. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    we knew. We saw the story in China in the fall and Europe in December 2019. We had 3-6 months to prepare. Every major corporation was reducing international travel. Hedge fund managers (who are friendly with Trump) were placing economy shut down trades.

    I bet the CIA had spies in wuhan.

    There was time to activate supply chains. Trump waited until the NHL, NBA, and the state governors took action before he did anything. Talk about leadership.

    secondly if trump hadn’t fought with his advisors and spread misinformation, it would have gone much smoother. If he didn’t like fauci, he should have fired him and placed someone else in charge. In a situation like this: the head doesn’t publicly second guess the guy he put in change. He replaces the guy or keeps his mouth shut.

    if Harris gets elected you will have a competent team of people running the show. No one wants to work for Trump. He will be the white house cook, the whitehouse janitor and be negotiating foreign policy deals with no research support.
     
    #46     Nov 1, 2024
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Hahahaha I gahnteeit.
     
    #47     Nov 1, 2024
  8. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Yup we all should have just gargled with bleach at the beginning.

    Done over with, a million+ Americans died unnecessarily.

    Just should have listen to Don The Con.
     
    #48     Nov 1, 2024
  9. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown



    this is a great write up, i can't compliment it enough - but it's wasted on the mentally ill - pigs only understand shit.
     
    #49     Nov 1, 2024
  10. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    No one person runs the country. Trusted ADVISORS bring ideas and thoughts to the table period. People way smarter than either of these two numb-nuts. To say that Trump knows what he is doing is absurd, cmon man stop it. He doesn’t take advice, it’s his way or the highway, you guys know that right? And yes if a coat hanger was on the other side of that vote instead of Harris it would probably win. We know what Trump represents to democracy and nothing else matters. :finger: It’s like Musk taking all the credit for space X being able to catch a booster rocket. Ok yeah whatever if that’s what you think.
     
    #50     Nov 1, 2024
    Laissez Faire and wrbtrader like this.