Will Trump cause a bear market (if he wins) ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TrAndy2022, Oct 31, 2024.

Will Trump cause a bear market (if he wins) with more than -25% drawdown in the SP500 ?

Poll closed Nov 7, 2024.
  1. Yes

    12 vote(s)
    41.4%
  2. No

    17 vote(s)
    58.6%
  1. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    them dogs and cats looking pretty tasty.. i'm learning russian also
     
    #11     Oct 31, 2024
    Haywood and ElCubano like this.
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    He definitely will cause a bear market if he loses ................ in (DJT), fastest stock to liqidation value in NYSE history.

    If.
     
    #12     Oct 31, 2024
  3. mervyn

    mervyn

    i think so. last time 20 percent draw was 2022 for no particular reason. he can't escape it. my worry is that he will print money like no tomorrow, to 50 trillion.
     
    #13     Oct 31, 2024
  4. This is a loaded question to begin with. Maybe explain why you think so?

    Anyway, I have no idea, but Trump is unpredictable and reckless. I pray for the best, but prepare for the worst.
     
    #14     Oct 31, 2024
    Sergio123 likes this.
  5. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Again the equation is really not to difficult to understand, no higher math involved:

    Big tariffs => deficits up => inflation up => interest rates up >= Bear Market
     
    #15     Oct 31, 2024
    SunTrader likes this.
  6. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    As per usual you are trying real hard for a reason for markets to drop, when historically it is unlikely short term ( US election year, normal seasonal strength, very healthy earnings, economy is fine ). And you are forever trying to claim others will be surprised by something when the reality is you are surprised by market action for a long, long time. If Trump gets his way on tariffs it will hurt the economy and markets but there will be a delay on when things occur. And some sources are convinced that the minute he implements bad policy, and sees the market reaction, he'll reverse course.
     
    #16     Oct 31, 2024
  7. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    That's the case for markets period always be ready for a correction. Having some cash ready for oversold conditions ( like Cdn energy today ) is often a good trade. Unfortunately for S2007S and others, they are so paranoid about corrections/crashes it negatively impacts their long term success.

    One of the best trades the last few years was long Cdn miners since nobody wanted them at all. However, after 2+ year bear market in those stocks it was really hard to get back into the best plays and sustain when the huge payoff occurred ( eg New Gold was well under $1 and at $1.19 I bailed at a profit when an analyst put out a target of 0.95; it got as high as 4.37 recently ).
     
    #17     Oct 31, 2024
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  8. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    sorry you know nothing - better be freezing road kill so you can survive the awful orange man.

    cnn is calling your name better run and watch em...
     
    #18     Oct 31, 2024
  9. maxinger

    maxinger

    Will Trump move the market massively if he wins?
    YES!


    It doesn't matter whether it goes up or down.
    We just want the market to move massively.


    There will be thousands of trading opportunities every day.
    It is time for the Exchange to be open on weekends and holidays
    too just to cater to Trump.

    ______________
     
    #19     Oct 31, 2024
    tomas262 and MarkBrown like this.
  10. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown


    hey now short selling is only for professionals - keep it quite otherwise we will have no prey..

    of course unless cnn tells them to short "and explains it in baby terms they can understand" they will be oblivious anyway..
     
    #20     Oct 31, 2024
    maxinger likes this.