Will Trump cause a bear market (if he wins) ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TrAndy2022, Oct 31, 2024.

Will Trump cause a bear market (if he wins) with more than -25% drawdown in the SP500 ?

Poll closed Nov 7, 2024.
  1. Yes

    12 vote(s)
    41.4%
  2. No

    17 vote(s)
    58.6%
  1. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Or how about:-

    Don The Con-Man

    Don The Con-vict

    Don The Con-A-Sewer

    Don The Con-vert the gullible @ bigly rallies (that is, bigly in the past)

    Don The Con-stitution means nothing to him

    Don The Con-grats to himself when he loses almost all the time. Then whines, and whines and whines.
     
    #101     Nov 4, 2024
  2. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    The worst what can happen is big inflation. With that kind of tariffs Trump is planning to do you can expect inlation will be soon out of control. It is like an invisible enemy. It will make the poor much poorer, because everything what they need to buy everyday will be much more expensive and they cannot profit from reduced income taxes as they do not pay that much at all, and the wealthy people get poorer too because the stock markets will be less good (and probably they also do not pay much income taxes as Trump shows as example). Too much Inlation is the real beast. There are lot of bad consequences when inflation will pick up a lot because of much larger deficits with Trump. Interest rates will go up much more than now too. I hope the American people realizes that. And this outcome is very probably if Trump wins.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2024
    #102     Nov 4, 2024
  3. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Nothing will accelerate inflation more like Trump is planning to do with huge tariffs to replace income taxes. And usually inflation has always the potential to destroy any country if it is out of control for longer. Just look at Latin America. You can expext double digits inflation data prints and huge interest rates raisings from FED then. Most Americans will be harmed on that kind of inflation. There is only a small prudent Elite who can even profit from inlation. Most will suffer if Trump wins. I am pretty sure. It will be a problem when Trump can rule through, if Harris wins she need to make compomises with the other party. So it will be much more balanced. With Trump you can expect a one man show, taking almost no advice from anyone. And his plans show that he has not enough economic knowledge.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2024
    #103     Nov 4, 2024
  4. 2rosy

    2rosy

    reductive reasoning is the TA of thought
     
    #104     Nov 4, 2024
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    Back in 2015-2016 right after he won, same chatters about bear market too. A costly mistake for those bears.
     
    #105     Nov 4, 2024
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    Economics is not an exact science, often the outcome can be the exact opposite of the normal expectations.
     
    #106     Nov 4, 2024
    shadowmanifold likes this.
  7. notagain

    notagain

    Lower oil prices, deregulation will counter the cost of tariffs.
    Layoff gov't workers to discourage insubordination.
    Trump wants more high paying jobs, so gov't isn't the only game.
     
    #107     Nov 4, 2024
  8. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Jeez, if you do not believe that 1+1 = 2; i cannot help you. If deficits is going up a lot in short time it means much more money is on the table. So with that much additional money it will accelerate inflation of course a lot (cause much more money means the money itself is less worth). This is so basic math.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2024
    #108     Nov 5, 2024
  9. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Trump’s tariffs could trigger ‘dramatic’ price spikes on clothes, furniture, warns retail group
    Published Mon, Nov 4 20248:17 PM EST
    [​IMG]
    Annie Nova
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    Rebecca Picciotto@https://www.linkedin.com/in/rebeccapicciotto/@beccpicc
    Share
    Key Points
    • Donald Trump’s universal tariff proposals could cause prices to skyrocket on clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation.
    • Trump has said he would impose a 10% or 20% tariff on all imports across the board and a specifically high China rate between 60% and 100%.
    • The NRF found that the impact of Trump’s tariffs would be “dramatic,” leading to double-digit percentage price spikes in nearly all six retail categories that the trade group examined.
    [​IMG]
    People shop in an Abercrombie & Fitch store in midtown Manhattan on October 24, 2024 in New York City.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images
    Former President Donald Trump’s universal tariff proposals could cause prices to skyrocket on clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation.

    The study, released on the eve of Election Day, adds to the pile of economic and industry analysis warning of the inflationary impacts of the Republican presidential nominee’s hardline approach to trade.


    Trump has said he would impose a 10% or 20% tariff on all imports across the board. He has also floated tacking on a specifically high China rate of between 60% and 100%.

    In both cases, the NRF found that the impact of Trump’s tariffs would be “dramatic” double-digit percentage price spikes in nearly all six retail categories that the trade group examined.

    For example, the cost of clothing could rise between 12.5% and 20.6%, the analysis found. That means an $80 pair of men’s jeans would instead cost between $90 and $96. A $100 coat? That would cost between $112 and $121.

    These new prices would squeeze consumer budgets, especially for low-income households that spend triple as much of their monthly budgets on apparel as high-income households spend, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The report found that the greatest price spikes could occur for toys: between 36.3% and 55.8%. The price of a $200 crib would also rise to between $213 and $219.


    On the macro level, those price increases would also erode consumer spending. The report found that the more expensive retail goods would lead to a $46 billion decrease in purchasing power, if Trump imposes both universal tariffs and especially high China rates.

    “Broad-based tariffs on the scale former President Trump has proposed will act as a massive tax increase on American families as they pay more for all imports, cutting into their purchasing power and thus weighing heavily on their spending and the overall economy,” Chief Moody’s Economist Mark Zandi told CNBC.

    The report did not factor in Trump’s new proposal, announced Monday, to impose a 25% tariff rate on Mexico if the country does not impose stricter border regulations, which he announced at his rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.
    Vice President Kamala Harris has capitalized on the economic criticism of Trump’s broad tariff plans, framing them as a “Trump sales tax” on American consumers. Instead, she favors a more targeted approach to the duties.

    But many voters respond well to Trump’s tariff proposals, feeling that years of free trade decimated factory towns across America.

    However, Trump’s tariffs during his first presidential term, including duties on foreign metals and washing machines, failed to raise the overall number of jobs in the relevant industries, a nonpartisan working paper found.

    “If higher taxes are placed on these imports from China, their production will move to other less developed countries,” said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    Given the relatively higher wages in the U.S., Lovely said, “it is very unlikely that many jobs will be created in these industries.”

    That means Americans won’t see additional jobs but will see prices rise.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/trump-tariffs-retail-price-spikes-nrf-report-2024-election.html
     
    #109     Nov 5, 2024
  10. S2007S

    S2007S



    You actually believe this is going to happen? I'm not one to talk politics but both of them and their ideas of one imposing tariffs and the other saying she'll bring down the cost of living expenses is all LIES.

    You really think he's going to impose these tariffs and create these types of increases? He even said he would eliminate income taxes and no taxes on overtime, and that raising tariffs would pay for this....none of this is happening.....Harris said she will bring down the cost of housing and food prices, please. I can guarantee you the prices of groceries aren't dropping and housing prices will only fall due to a heavy recession and will have nothing to with the policies they claim they will bring forward.....

    Nothing is going to change. All of these rallies and everything they claim they will do for the American people is nothing but LIES.
     
    #110     Nov 5, 2024