Discussion in 'Trading' started by James Stock, Dec 20, 2003.
please vote. I vote "yes".
This may be an instance where the majority is correct. Maybe.
because its nearing the end of the year and most of the real players will be on vacation.
I believe the market will pop up after the 1st of the year then (depending on how long it takes) the market should test 1120-1150 then Collapse back down below last Octobers lows and thus is the begining of a "REAL" Bear market!
Agreed except for the market retesting/breaking October lows. That's a bit ridiculous.
we are soooo close ..... yet so far ....
with option expiry out of the way .... its santa and hanukah against al qaieda ( sigh )
Nation's Threat Level Rising to Orange
(AP) - The government on Sunday raised the national threat level to orange, the second-highest, saying attacks were possible during the holidays and that threat indicators are "perhaps greater now than at any point" since Sept. 11, 2001
are you sure about this? "DO NOT FEED THIS TROLL!
Here are his MOST common ALIASES:
balda, SnoopTrader, Bruto Blukowski, Newtoet, dbphoenix, maggandre, Hoodooman, specul8r, Ebo, kserra, Pisspotpete......and many others!"
I don't think dbphoenix goes by all those aliases. He may be alot of things, but all those aliases? I'm not so sure.
Good call James Stock, Im not really sure how I got lumped into the T-REX blacklist but somehow it happened.
As far as the poll goes I would have to say there isn't enough time left in the year to reach 1100, however if we can clear 1090 there is a good chance it could get there before the end of the year.
If you go back to 1960 on SP...the average gain during the two years leading up to an election after putting in a bottom is 44%.
So if you beleive that the Oct 9, 2002 bottom of about 775ish is for real, then the SP should top out soon at 1120ish, base and churn. But if you use the closing basis then the SP has room to go to almost 1200.
If you compare 2003 to 1987, the picture looks bleaker, as in that year just as now, Equities were hot, Gold was hot, rates had a melt-up (like summer 2003), and the $$ was getting spanked..then the gain into 1988 election was a mere 6%.
Ask yourself has a true bull mkt ever emerged from an easy credit policy, and low household liquidity.
The last mega bull ...1982-2000..emerged from hi interest rate environment and a flush "savings type consumer"..not one running on fumes..add in that the bulge bracket of income earners are the boomers, and the first one's turn 60 in 2005, and then you get "the not so pretty picture" coming..as well as rates rising...not the recipe for more upside ...aside from the synthetic election cycle.
If my thesis is correct, 2004, will be another up year, and then the carnage will start in 2005.
But 1987 type env is not outta the question either...that's why we gotta be flexible.
What do y0u mean? Of course, market will settle near the high at the last moment of the year. Next year, 100% up room to go.
well said David.
What a joke that there was some bozo buzzing around me (wiggle/nolan-vinny-sam) saying that there was nothing to be learned from my threads. Read what David is saying. I assure you there is something to be learned.
I'm not so sure 2004 will be an up year. Let's see. I give you credit for your analysis, and am following 1120 as potential resistance. Thanks.
Separate names with a comma.