Huge divergence in the markets. One market will drag down the Dow. Sell YM and buy ES for a nice spread trade. Just one trade idea.
When I figure gaps, I go by the cash close on the index, not where the fut's settle at. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_YM.H06.E&v=i&w=5&t=f&a=2
ES never lags for a long time in a bull market. Tested it from Jan 1995 to Dec. 2005. So if the ES starts lagging for more than few weeks, you know what that means.
Of course it can. But will it? With an 3 month ATR of 9.8 and a close last night of 1282.45 it`s only 17.55 points away or just under two days move from 1300. Two days worth of a full move in ATR is static in the grand scheme of things.