Will the S&P go to 1000 or 1200 ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by fly down, Sep 9, 2010.

will the S&P hit 1000 or 1200 first?

  1. 1000

    60 vote(s)
    39.0%
  2. 1200

    80 vote(s)
    51.9%
  3. I cannot give an answer at this time

    14 vote(s)
    9.1%
  1. How many 1300 puts have you sold? :D
     
    #361     Oct 30, 2010
  2. S2007S

    S2007S

    Not even 5 minutes after my first post on the futures and there even higher now!!

    S&P FUT
    1186.4 _ 6.7 +0.57%
    DOW FUT
    11129.0 _ 63.0 +0.57%
    NAS FUT
    2132.0 _ 10.0 +0.47%
    OIL
    81.45 _ 0.02 +0.02%


    Updates throughout the night, gap up tomorrow morning followed by heavy buying all day and all week as investors get the $1 trillion QE2. Thank Bubble ben bernanke for doing a fine job of creating more asset bubbles.

    :p
     
    #362     Oct 31, 2010
  3. S2007S

    S2007S

    Using history as a guide the stock market usually NEVER declines around mid term elections so get ready for a huge fucking rally into the end of 2010, nothing is going to stop this rally, N-O-T-H-I-N-G!!!!!



    Why the Dow Usually Rallies After Midterm Elections
    usnews


    Ben Baden, On Monday October 25, 2010, 2:39 pm EDT

    Democrats and Republicans may both have something to celebrate in the months following the midterm elections: A stock market rally. From 1922 to 2006, the average gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the 90 trading days following midterms (roughly November until mid-March) was 8.5 percent, according to a new study authored by Brian Gendreau, market strategist for Financial Network. That's almost 5 percent higher than the Dow's gains in non-election years.

    Historically, the post-election period has been a good one for stocks. "So the question is, 'Did the markets go up in the midterm election years by more than average in non-election years?' Gendreau says. "And the answer is, 'Yes, by a huge amount more.'" The Dow has risen following 19 of the last 22 midterm elections.



    In the weeks before midterms, the market generally tends to perform well. "The market starts to go up beforehand and it just doesn't stop," he says. And generally, the party of the president tends to do poorly in midterm elections. (Since 1942, the party in control of the White House has lost an average of 28 seats in the House and four in the Senate.) During that period, the only time the ruling party gained seats in both the House and Senate was in the 2002 elections, and the market fell afterward--making it the only time the Dow has fallen after a midterm election since 1942.

    Since the midterms tend to be an equalizing force on Capitol Hill, many experts have said in the past that this proves the markets like gridlock in Congress. Gendreau offers a different explanation: The markets hate uncertainty. "Before the mid-term election there's a lot of uncertainty, and often one party swept in a lot of seats along with the presidential election and that gets reversed to some extent," Gendreau says. "Then everyone knows what the playing field is and has a better idea of what might happen going forward."



    Also, after the midterms, there is generally a more balanced share of power between the president and Congress, so the chance for compromise is more likely. "The market seems to like that," he says.

    So what about this year? Gendreau is the first to admit that he's not the first economist to release a survey like this. His research just covers a longer period of time. He also notes that given the ever-increasing wealth of information available to traders today, the effects of this trend may be somewhat weaker going forward. But so far this year, the Dow has been steadily rising in anticipation of the midterms, gaining about 7 percent year-to-date.

    Looking further out, the year following the midterms or the president's third year in office is usually the best year for the Dow, according to an older study by Gendreau. From 1871 to 2005, the average return of the S&P Composite Stock Index during the third year of a president's term was 10.1 percent. During the fourth year in office the index was up 7.5 percent, on average--a marked improvement over average returns in the first year (3 percent), and the second (2.7 percent).
     
    #363     Oct 31, 2010
  4. Last week's high holding...prob thru wed.
     
    #364     Nov 1, 2010
  5. The nasdaq comp made a high today of 2532.4 so there's a perfect double top. The S&P also has made a mini double top @ 1196.

    I have sold many Nov S&P 1250 calls. And I sold alot more today. The rally is over.
     
    #365     Nov 1, 2010
  6. gobar

    gobar

    fyi gap on spy @ 120.20
     
    #366     Nov 2, 2010
  7. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    looks over today sure enough. up 7 in premarket.
     
    #367     Nov 2, 2010
  8. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Yeah, but pre-market and even the first few hours have been anything but predictive of how the market will close recently.

    Of course, the big anticipated events now on the table today and tomorrow, so who knows.
     
    #368     Nov 2, 2010
  9. S2007S

    S2007S

    Markets looking to the upside yet again, as I said yesterday 1225-1240 by the end of the week. 1300+ by end of year and historical highs by mid 2011.

    Oh yea oil looks to be breaking out, however no need to worry, there will be a tipping point soon but not at $147!!
     
    #369     Nov 2, 2010
  10. S2007S

    S2007S

    S&P FUT
    1189.9 _ 6.8 +0.57%
    DOW FUT
    11145.0 _ 55.0 +0.50%
    NAS FUT
    2141.0 _ 12.0 +0.56%
    OIL
    83.97 _ 1.02 +1.23%


    :p
     
    #370     Nov 2, 2010