I'm thinking that a rally into the election would be a bad thing for dems. Rally back to highs would breed complacency. They need complete emotion in the voting booth. That's why every issue has been talked about like the end of the world. The economy has never been good in 7 years, Islamic terrorists are around every corner, the globe is warming or cooling either one is bad and deadly, you will start dying in droves if we can't get universal health care, SS is going to bankrupt the country and send us back to the dark ages and no body can stop it (the dems claim they will make it easier to go down in flames though), "Iraq can't be put back together" was the manta right from the beginning. This can go on and on and on. How does the picture of peoples investments being at break even or ahead fit into this scary picture? I know it's supposed to move up into an election year, but this is a vote for change craze. That to me makes it look like downward pressure on the market to reinforce the massage "You can't make it on your own". Probably I am wrong and the conventional view of election years will prove out. But I'm worried that this group of Pols wants damaged goods voting to recreate the magic 30's when government could push anything through that it wanted as a temporary fix and/or stop gap measure. Things that are still around and we are having to figure out how stop from destroying the country. What better way to add another layer to the government than intense fear. Seems like the theme of the new millennium, no.
The election will be so close, imo, that I believe stocks will not react until the next day. They may very well rally or drop leading up to the election, but not because of the election. I am in the camp that thinks its a long shot for BO to win due to the electoral map, but if it happens, it will get ugly. Perfect storm of an extremely liberal Prez and major control of congress in the same party. God help us. Ironically enough he may get the popular vote by a wide margin and still lose. I'd like to see this actually so we can shitcan this absurd system once and for all.
LMFAO, traders need to thank the democracts for the great economy that we had between 1992 and 2000. His foreign policy wasnt so great, but that you guys dont care about that. I know why you are afraid of Obama, cause you don't know how he will effect the market. He is a democrat, but a lot of corporations are relying on his liberal idealism to give the poor money which they will spend internally (US), and help pick up our weak economy. A quick lesson from a real economist.
Republicans will win because of CONSISTENCY!! Republicans can be counted on for the same type of candidate FOREVER White Older Male It is that reliability that will win in November!
With the amount of noise Volcker's been making, it appears he could come back to the Fed if Obama is elected. Paulson and Bernanke have to go. With Rubin on the sidelines, it appears competent people are standing by if the country has grown a brain.
A bit of reality- If you want to thank someone for the economy of the '90's, thank Newt Gingrich and the Republican Congress, who lowered cap gains when they got in and promptly clogged up the rest of Clinton's populist agenda for the next 6 years.
Some people say there will be no tax increase. (And no cap gain tax increase). http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=130902